Aldi and Lidl Growth Potential - Three Key Numbers

Institute of Grocery Distribution research about how shoppers plan to buy their Christmas food reveals three telling figures about the potential for Aldi and Lidl.

Of those shoppers intending to visit a discounter -

-          62% will do so to save money

-          40% will go because of the quality of the food

-          17% will go because of fancy foods like lobster tails

The numbers confirm what we already know, namely that low prices are the overriding reason for discount shopping. But what may be surprising is that low prices are so much more important than quality.

Equally telling is the finding that, even at Christmas, only 17% will visit a discounter for speciality foods. The lobster tails and fine wines may be attracting the media hype, but at heart they are a publicity gathering fringe activity, unlikely to be generating big volumes. It is the low prices that matter to most discount shoppers, and the presence or absence of more exotic foods will not matter a jot to them.

The current gap between price and quality puts a ceiling on discounters’ growth potential, but finding the right solutions will not be easy.

The key is to understand what consumers mean when they talk about quality, but not all consumers will view quality in the same way.

Many regular Aldi and Lidl shoppers are delighted with the quality of the foods they buy there, not because they are prepared to compromise, rather they have tried the various products, and know the ones that they like. These precious core customers must not be alienated.

It is likely that the gap between price and quality is greatest among less frequent shoppers. But quality takes many forms. It could be lack of choice that makes shoppers down rate product quality. It could be simply that the discounter version does not taste as good as a branded equivalent. On fresh foods it could be lack of consistency -some days the products are top notch in terms of freshness, appearance, texture and flavour, but some days they are not.   Aldi and Lidl seem to have taken the view that the answer is to add a premium range akin to Tesco’s Finest or Asda’s Extra Special, and throw in the exotic range of food and wines. They will need to do more to bring the number of shoppers buying because of quality closer to the number buying on price, and they must not lose their price position in the process.

Meanwhile, their competitors have their own tightrope to walk, and theirs is the degree to which they can reduce prices, yet keep their shareholders on side. 

Recent performance statistics issued by Kantar Worldpanel indicate that quality issues are not yet hampering the discounters who continue to forge ahead, helped by a number of new stores, and the continued lack of radical pricing action from any of the traditional supermarkets There have been murmurings that the tide may be turning in favour of the mainstream supermarkets, but if so, it is turning very slowly.

Aldi and Lidl – How Big Can They Get?

This is a question being addressed with some trepidation in the boardrooms of traditional supermarkets, their anxiety heightened by the news that  Aldi and Lidl combined have now reached a 10% share of the Uk grocery market.  What is particularly scary is that it took 9 years for Aldi and Lidl to get from 2.5% share to 5%, but only three to double again to the current 10%.

 At the moment they seem unstoppable.

For starters they are building more stores at a time when all other supermarkets are contracting. Aldi and Lidl between them have plans to open 171 new outlets, compared with 29 for the Big 4, and Lidl has stated that it wants to more than double its number of stores, from 629 now to 1500. Aldi is aiming for 1000.

And , a factor that is not often commented on is that both companies are privately owned and so, unlike the Big 4, (Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda and Morrisons) are not constrained by shareholder demands for ever higher profits. The discounters can invest as much as they want, be it in ever lower prices, or store refurbishments, or colossal marketing campaigns, without wondering how the City will react.

Their aggressive marketing seems to be working. According to research company Kantar Worldpanel, Aldi and Lidl have added 1 million more shoppers in the last year, and they have gone more up market, with the result that 31% of their shoppers are now in the wealthier AB social group.

They have taken the upcoming Christmas season very seriously with blanket advertising campaigns, and glossy brochures given away free in Saturday and Sunday papers. A flip through the Aldi brochure reminds readers that they can buy Canadian lobster, British free range goose,  British RSPCA assured Bronze free range turkey, British leg of lamb, and British Caramel and Bourbon ham joint.

Lidl reminds us that it won “Grocer of the Year”, then points out its Marine Stewardship Council certified lobster, RSPCA assured pork, British Bronze turkeys, organic and free range eggs.

How clever to acknowledge major consumer trends in this way – British, welfare friendly, and a bit special.

Both companies pride themselves on their wine and spirits expertise, and compete well with the big 4. Aldi in particular has recognised a competitive opportunity by setting up an online wines and spirits arm, which, some suggest will compete with thatt offered by Waitrose.

So far so rosy. What might stop the march of the discounters?

Four factors could hinder growth

First, Aldi and Lidl might lose sight of what made them great in the first place, namely rock bottom prices . This is what happened to Morrisons who, in an effort to broaden appeal to more affluent shoppers, took their eye off their core customers who could no longer find the good value to which they were accustomed, and were turned off by gimmicks such as misted vegetables and overly fancy foods. There are already signs that this could be happening to Lidl who are refurbishing stores and changing their range of goods to more closely resemble premium outlets. 

Secondly, the big 4 might take decisive action on becoming price competitive, as opposed to tinkering around the edges, which is the case at the moment. Asda for example say that they have reduced the price gap between themselves and the discounters to 10%, and are aiming for a 5% gap. They say that 4 years ago the gap was 20%. Of course this assumes that the discounters would not reduce prices still further, leading to a zero sum game.

Thirdly, discounters might lose out because they do not offer online shopping, apart from the Aldi alcohol venture. Online growth is predicted to continue, as retailers make their websites easier to use, particularly on smartphones and tablets, and more convenient with initiatives like click and collect.

Fourthly, many shoppers feel that they cannot  get everything they want from the limited range offered by discounters which means having to shop twice. There may be some who find this too inconvenient to bother with the discounters.  

Where might it end? Growth rates are slowing from the heady levels of a year ago, but still run at around 16%. The general consensus among industry watchers is that Aldi and Lidl will achieve a market share of around 15%, similar to that in Ireland, due mostly to store openings. Whether they get much beyond that is debatable.  In Germany, discounters have a 37% share, but the trade structure is different to the UK with fewer traditional supermarkets, but Source: BPEX).

even here there are signs that growth is levelling off.  In France, which has a grocery trade structure similar to the UK, the discounters got to around 14% market share, but traditional supermarkets fought back and share in 2014 fell to around 12%. (

One thing is not in doubt though – the discount grocers are now a significant part of the British grocery scene, and will continue to be so as long as they stick to what they are best at – low, low prices.

Retailers Key to Driving Organic Market Growth

The Soil Association's market report for 2014 shows a 4% rise in sales of organic products, a welcome return to growth for organic devotees.

The performance by type of product has been well documented. Sales of eggs were up by 16%, yogurts by 14%,chicken by 8%, and milk by 3%.Veg sales were down 2% as were sales of red meat and sausages, which dropped by 6%.

The strongest sectors for organic produce are dairy, which accounts for 28% of all spending on organic foods, and baby foods where over half of all sales are organic.

Attention has been drawn to the role of brands in driving growth. Yeo Valley sales are quoted as being up by 13%, and there is talk of good performances from Rachel’s yogurts, and Green and Black chocolate.

Less well documented is the pivotal part that retailers play in the fortunes of organics.

Milk growth is being powered by sales in Aldi and Lidl, which jumped by 410% and 166% respectively. And sales of fruit and vegetables were propped up by these two retailers both of whom now stock organic variants. Aldi claims that their organic offer saves shoppers 30% versus prices in bigger supermarkets. Ocado, the online grocery retailer saw sales grow by 14%, broadly in line with their overall sales trends. Riverford Organics, the online box delivery service posted an 8% growth in the year to May 2014, taking their sales to £44.4 million, and Abel and Cole, also in the box business,  reported sales of £65 million, which according to owners Wm. Jackson represented “strong growth”.

Conversely, mainstream supermarket performance was patchy, with the best results coming from Waitrose, up 3.5%

.

What this all may suggest is that the organic label on its own is not enough to guarantee a secure future. Sales success seems to be down to a combination of operating in the right categories, choosing a strong and committed retail partner, and ideally, building a powerful brand where being organic is just one aspect of what makes the consumer want to pick it off the shelf.

“A Market in Unprecedented Distress” – Says ASDA About the Grocery Trade

The words come from Andy Clarke, ASDA’s head man, as he reported like for like sales down 1.6% in the 13 weeks to end September, and thereby joined the other three major grocers in a club characterised by sliding sales and plummeting profits.

There is an air of helplessness coming from all four companies with much talk of shoppers changing the way they shop but little sign of game changing action. Yet the changes over which the grocers are wringing their hands have been evident for years. Who in the industry could have missed the rise of Aldi and Lidl, the trend towards convenience shopping and its knock on effect of buying fewer items, and the realisation by shoppers that with a little effort they can trim grocery bills. Arguably too, a return to more normal levels of food inflation was inevitable, and that relying on rising prices to keep sales and profits up was a risky strategy.

Grocers may have secretly thought that a better economy would encourage shoppers to return to pre recession buying behaviour, when little thought was given by many to the size of their grocery bill.

This has not happened. Whilst premium food sellers like Marks and Spencer and Waitrose may be doing better than most, and shoppers are still prepared to buy premium products like Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference which grew by 4% in the last 6 months, the overwhelming evidence is that shoppers are still very careful with their grocery spending.

The Institute of Grocery Distribution has found that the top three priorities of shoppers today are –

To save money on food and groceries (64%)

To reduce food waste (47%)

To stick to a budget (47%)

All the signs are that to remain competitive and hold on to their customers,  supermarkets will need to rebase prices to a significantly lower level than currently.  Asda has recognised this. As the CEO said “We have more to do on the discounters, but we continue to close the gap on price”. Sainsbury by contrast has not, offering only a £150m price reduction. Morrisons know that pricing is key, and suggested that they will reduce by £1billion. Tesco has yet to pronounce.

Tough times for retailers - very tough times for all players in the food chain from producers upwards.

Supermarket Price Promises – Mostly Smoke and Mirrors

Shoppers’ continued search for value, and the onslaught of discount grocers has led to the Big 4 supermarkets are tying themselves in knots trying to assure their shoppers that they offer the same prices as their competitors.

All claim that the shopper can be confident that their purchases will be no more expensive than if they had bought elsewhere, but close examination suggests that the initiatives being run by the supermarkets are mostly smoke and mirrors designed to give the illusion of value but in reality offering little of substance.

No store hands back hard cash if they are found to be more expensive. Instead Tesco, Sainsbury and Asda hand over vouchers and Morrisons has a complicated scheme where a card has to be obtained, points are added to the card when purchase at another store would have been cheaper, and the points are eventually traded in for a voucher. Voucher schemes benefit the supermarket because many will have been lost or forgotten about before they expire.

There are other wheezes designed to limit supermarket exposure. Sainsbury only compares with Asda, dropping the comparison with Tesco in a recent change designed to save money. Asda makes the shopper do the comparison work. It guarantees to be 10% cheaper than the other three major supermarkets but the shopper has to go online, enter till receipt details to find if their shop could have been cheaper elsewhere, and then claim their voucher.

There are a myriad of exclusions and exceptions to the various price promises. To be fair, Tesco’s Price Match covers all shops big and small, and fresh and own label products as well as branded. Morrisons compares with Lidl and Aldi as well as the majors across branded and own label. But Sainsbury does not offer its Brand Match in convenience stores, neither does Morrisons, and Sainsbury only compares branded prices.  All the supermarkets stipulate a minimum spend. No store gives out a voucher worth more than £10. Many everyday items are excluded such as baby formula.

There will be shoppers who have the time to go into the detail and work out how to make these pricing initiatives work in their favour. Many though will quickly conclude that the only thing that counts when shopping is the size of the bill week in and week out.

Which takes us back to Lidl and Aldi.

Despite the flurry of reduced prices and price promises among the “Big 4” both discount stores continue to flourish. Add to this Aldi’s recent commitment to keep the price differential between themselves and conventional supermarkets at a minimum of 15%, and it is difficult to see how the majors can hold their position without concrete and continued price reductions across their whole range of goods. So far, they are only playing at delivering competitive prices.

How do Mainstream Grocers Deal With the Quagmire of Low Market Growth, Rampant Discounters and Budget Minded Shoppers?

Food sales in the 12 weeks to 20^th July grew attheir slowest rate for 10 years, up just 0.9% in value. 

Despite the uptick in the economy, and in consumer confidence, people are reluctant to give up their thrifty food buying habits acquired during the depths of the recession. They are helped of course by being able to shop at discount supermarkets. Aldi and Lidl have raised their quality game, kept rock bottom prices, and been rewarded with rocketing growth rates.

What then is the best way to deal with lacklustre growth rates, budget conscious consumers and rampant discounters?

Suggested action is falling into two camps. One says that mainstream grocers must reduce their prices by meaningful amounts, and soon. The other says go where the growth is and invest in online grocery shopping and convenience stores.

The IGD continues to back its online growth forecasts saying that sales will more than double in 5 years.  It points out that online grocery shopping is still in its infancy. Just 27% of shoppers use on line, and only 10% do their major shop online. The IGD reckons that the convenience of shopping online, providing as it does the ability to shop anytime, anywhere, combined with new initiatives being developed by retailers, and the added ease provided by mobile technology, means that more and more shoppers will gravitate to online buying.

Certainly some retailer initiatives look attractive. The boom in click and collect outlets avoids the need to wait in at home for the order to arrive, and even at home it is possible to select one hour slots leaving the rest of the day free. Retailers are also working on apps to make shopping easier. Instead of trawling through every category, Ocado’s app provides personalised guides to what is usually bought, what was bought last time, and ready prepared lists of what might be needed. Ocado is a leader in mobile shopping and says that 45% of its shoppers check out on a mobile gadget.

Retailers are also working on the opportunity to build volume over and above a standard shop by linking products in a way that is not possible in store – pizza and beer for example.

IGD points out that further growth will come from the advent of new players like Morrisons, the Coop, and Iceland who are all testing online shopping methods.

The above initiatives should encourage more online shopping, but there are two snags. First they are a double hit financially being costly in terms of investment and considerably less profitable than regular in store shopping. And second, they do not solve the knotty problem of uncompetitive pricing compared with the discounters.

Sainsbury’s tie up with discounter Netto starts to address the pricing issue, and there is a suggestion that Tesco could manage its stores like it does its product range, with three tiers of shops – value, to provide rock bottom prices, middle, and Finest as a Waitrose look alike to keep the profit margins up.

It is difficult to see how mainstream supermarkets will be able to afford a big drop in prices and the huge investment in online without radical restructuring, a dip in profits, and the usual squeeze on suppliers.

Competitive pricing has to be the priority, and with it an acceptance that online may not grow as fast as many predict. 

Not Only Consumers Love Aldi and Lidl - Suppliers Do Too

You might think that discounter retail prices are so low that suppliers’ profits from serving them are thin to the point of non existent.

Not so. Yes it is true that Aldi and Lidl negotiate hard, and a recent article in the Financial Times suggests that margins are of the order of 5-10% lower than for traditional supermarkets. But the discount model means that there are many upsides.

The keys are the limited range of products on offer and selling at the same price every day. Aldi and Lidl stock around 3,000 lines compared with a standard supermarket range of 40,000-50,000. This means that suppliers can manufacture long runs of product instead of incurring cost by stopping the line to change to another variant. Everyday low pricing means that volumes are consistent and easier to forecast, as opposed to volatile and unpredictable, which is the case when goods are sold on promotion. Because there are few promotions there are few demands for add ons like promotional support. And listing fees seem to be a rarity.

Aldi and Lidl tend to be loyal to their suppliers and the narrow range and everyday price mean that suppliers need fewer people to manage the account, and waste little time in meetings.

Discounters operate efficiently and this philosophy benefits suppliers. No costly chopping and changing in manufacturing, no cash draining peaks and troughs in volumes, no wild and expensive ideas about promotions, no rug pulling at the last minute when an activity seems to have been agreed, and minimum numbers of meetings – it all adds up to a financially beneficial relationship.

Add to that the enormous growth potential that discounters offer, and it becomes clear why suppliers find that dealing with the likes of Aldi and Lidl a satisfactory experience.

  

A Look at Lidl - The "Other" Discount Store

Despite running more stores than fellow discounter Aldi, (nearly 600 versus Aldi’s 400)  Lidl remain smaller in market share, and have not managed to achieve Aldi rates of growth. In the last quarter Aldi’s market share was 3.6% and its sales grew 30% year on year. Lidl’s share was 3%, and it grew by 9%.

Why might there be this disparity in performance? I visited the Lidl store in Penicuik in the Scottish borders to find clues.

Both Aldi and Lidl sell products at prices far lower than available in mainstream supermarkets.( The dark chocolate pictured sells at 79p versus the branded equvalent at £1.85p).   Lidl follows many of the practices embraced by Aldi, designed to make the cost of operating the stores very low, and passing the benefits of the low cost base on to shoppers. Both sell a small range of products under brand names that few have heard of, many of which are imported. The small range means smaller stores which are cheaper to run. Products are displayed in their outer cases as opposed to being unpacked and placed on the shelf, saving staff costs. Costs are also saved by having fewer checkouts, and employing super fast till checkout operators. Both stores encourage those with alot of shopping to pack away from the till, again speeding up the process.

Lidl differs from Aldi in that it offers more big name brands and it is difficult to judge whether this deviation from the standard discount model results in increased sales by attracting shoppers who like to buy known brands or whether the added cost means that prices are possibly not quite as low as Aldi.

Lidl’s fresh food offer seems more attractive than Aldi’s. Many breads are baked on the premises, and attractively displayed in wicker baskets. Most of the meat on offer was produced in Scotland, well displayed in stand alone  chiller cabinets, and accompanied by an explanation of Lidl’s animal welfare standards. Some ham was imported but British product was available. Certainly the Scottish produced pork chops purchased at the Penicuik store were excellent.

The fruit and vegetables looked fresh enough, but do not display a sell by date (another cost saving action employed by both discounters as once a sell by date is reached product has to be sold at a heavy discount.) It was therefore disappointing that my Jersey Royal potatoes, albeit  costing 18p per kilo less that Sainsburys, had turned green by the day after purchase.

Overall though, the combination of availability of major brands and generally good quality fresh food made the  shopping experience in Lidl Penicuik  more like that in a major supermarket than does Aldi  and the company embraces more consumer trends like attention to animal welfare and supporting local produce.

So why would Lidl be growing more slowly than Aldi?

One answer could be that Aldi are opening more stores than Lidl.

It could be that prices are not as sharp, or product quality in general not as good. Aldi seems to do particularly well when it comes to food awards.

My guess is that Lidl’s marketing is not as good as Aldi’s.  Aldi generates more publicity in the papers than Lidl - it is always Aldi that journalists write about when doing a feature on discount stores.  And Aldi has promoted and advertised its products more heavily.

This could be why Lidl have embarked on two advertising campaigns, one talking about the quality of its fresh food, the other highlighting packaged products that consumers rate as highly as major brands, but which cost considerably less.

If Lidl wants to grow faster it needs to make sure its activities are squeaky clean.

Lidl, like Aldi, was caught up in the horsemeat scandal. There has been a recent allegation that Lidl only pays UK tax of around £12,000 on a business with a £3 billion turnover. Lidl of course claims that it complies completely with UK tax laws. Whilst unlikely to have impacted on sales growth to date, such an allegation will do little to enhance the company’s reputation. 

Which is unfortunate as it seems to have much to offer its customers, particularly in difficult economic times.

Does Waitrose Sales Growth and Deal with Duchy Signal Return to Premium Food Buying?

Market research company Taylor Nelson Sofres tells us that in the last three months, Waitrose sales grew by 10.2% versus 5.6% for the whole grocery market.

So what prompted the spurt?

Contrary to popular belief the powerhouse has not been Essential Waitrose. This range was never meant to a budget offer competing with value ranges from other supermarkets. In fact most of the products in the range remained as they always had been, and were sold at the same price as previously. The difference was that the range was pulled together under one distinctive brand name.

Essential Waitrose was a rebranding of mostly existing lines, but the vast publicity surrounding its launch seems to have encouraged shoppers back into the stores to re-evaluate what Waitrose had to offer. Once back inside, and helped many more price promotions than hitherto, shoppers liked what they saw and started buying again across the whole Waitrose range. Indeed, Richard Hodgson Commercial Director told the Grocer “Essential Waitrose has played a role at the bottom end but most of our growth is coming at the top end”.

The other factor behind growth may well have been the froth coming off discount shopping. Many of the shoppers who were lured to Aldi and Lidl tried them once, and never came back. The discounters have not converted triers into regular shoppers and growth has slowed from north of 20% per annum to a still respectable but not earth shattering 8% for Aldi and 6% for Lidl.

So does the growth in Waitrose sales and the bloom coming off the discount rose signal the end of the recession and a return to premium food shopping? Well in truth, premium food shopping never went away provided the product in question justified the price charged. What shoppers were not prepared to do was buy premium merely because the label said premium. This is where many organic foods struggled.


Which leads to the Duchy deal. This does seem to be a good thing for both parties. Duchy Originals is a well known and respected brand which should benefit from Waitrose support, and Waitrose commitment to donate to the Prince of Wales Charities can only be beneficial.

It will be interesting to see what Waitrose does with Duchy. The brand is apparently being positioned as super premium, and Mark Price Waitrose Managing Director reckons that it will grow to about 2.5% of Waitrose sales, equating to a turnover of some £100million. The challenge will be to ensure that shoppers are given a clear justification of the super premium positioning. We know that just saying organic on its own will not be enough. One thing is certain. Unless the quality of Duchy products is absolutely superb, and better than anything else available for a similar price, the brand will not blossom.

Finally, can we say that the growth in Waitrose sales, their optimism about Duchy, and the slow down in growth for discounters means a return to pre credit crunch ways of shopping?

Not completely. Shoppers now have a much better handle on what is and is not worth paying for. They have got the taste for chasing bargains. And lurking at the back of most people’s minds is a worry about what the economic climate will be like over the next few years. They won’t be throwing their money away in a hurry.

Discount Supermarket Growth Slows - Is It All Over for ALDI et al?

Discount supermarkets like Aldi and Lidl are making headlines again, but this time for sales slowing rather than growing.

Editor of The Grocer, Adam Neyland wrote a piece a couple of weeks ago entitled “Is the discount boom over?” This was followed a few days later by figures from market research company TNS Worldpanel, which showed that in the 12 weeks to June 14th Sainsbury and Morrison grew faster than Aldi and Lidl, with Asda growing at about the same rate. Actual figures were +6.5% for the total grocery market, Morrisons +9.3%, Sainsbury +8.9%, Aldi +8.7%, Lidl +7.5%, and Asda 8.2%. It’s a marked change. In the previous months the discounters were growing at anything up to 3 times the rate of their main stream competitors.

Why the change?

As Neyland points out some slowdown in growth was inevitable as competitors fought back with price promotions, million £ advertising budgets, and a focus on the quality and value of their fresh food. Which is a lesson to all of us to never underestimate the competition, particularly in UK grocery.

I think there is more to it.

It is interesting to reflect on what caused the discounter boom in the first place. Of course some of it was due to consumers on a strict budget searching for value as food prices rocketed. Much responsibility though must be laid at the door of the media. Not a day went by without headlines about the middle classes turning to Aldi, that it was now more chic to be seen with an Aldi bag than a Waitrose one, and that discount car parks were full of Range Rovers and Mercedes. No wonder many read the hype, worried about missing out, and nipped along to see what all the fuss was about. The monetary value of all that media coverage must have run into millions.

The big question is, of those who made the visit, how many tried, were disappointed and never came back versus how many changed their shopping habits and returned every week. Market research company Him! (yes, new to me too, but they are a genuine outfit despite the odd name), does regular research with discount shoppers. They say that shoppers are less satisfied with discounters this year than they were in 2008. Also that recent shoppers, and more upmarket shoppers expected more from the stores and were disappointed by what they found when they got there.

There is a lesson here too, which is that a business cannot be built on people buying just the once, rather, long term growth will come from having a solid base of loyal fans who buy again and again.

So what of the future?

Discounters have many devoted customers, but it is not a way of shopping that appeals to all. If it were, the market share for all three discounters would be far higher than its current 5.9%, which compares with a share of 11.6% for Morrisons, 16.1% for Sainsbury, 16.8% for Asda, and 30.8% for Tesco.

Adam Neyland rightly concluded that discounters will not go away. Largely privately owned so without shareholder pressure for fast returns, they have cash and big ambitions. Aldi is committed to opening a store a week until they have 1500 in total. It also recently won best supermarket award from Which?, the consumer organisation. Lidl is supporting consumer trends with the addition of Fairtrade products, and a commitment to sourcing British beef, chicken and pork.

Whether they will make a major breakthrough is questionable. Already some research by Him! shows the numbers shopping at discounters dropping from 15% to 13% of the population, which compares with 79% visiting a mainstream supermarket. And if you look at shares held by all discounters, it has not moved much from the days when Kwiksave was operating. Indeed Edward Garner of TNS has consistently argued that the growth seen in discounters is merely a mopping up of market share held by the now defunct Kwiksave.

The future for discounters is likely to be one where the total sector will hold its market share, and within that there will be winners and losers with Aldi consolidating its position as the main player.