Going for Growth - How Marks and Spencer, Waitrose, Morrisons and Aldi are Tackling the Challenge

Growth remains the holy grail for all supermarkets. Here we look at four different approaches -   M&S and Waitrose at the premium end of the market, Morrisons in the mainstream, and Aldi the discount chain.

The discount sector remains an endless source of fascination for supermarket watchers because the business models are so different from the mainstream, but their growth rates are tremendous. In the 12 weeks to September 4^th, Aldi has grown by 26% and LIDL by 13%. This run of growth has been going on for months. Part of it is down to the demise of Netto, meaning that discount fans have had to transfer their allegiance, part of it is a response to rising food prices and shrinking disposable income. Interestingly though, the growth has come for the most part from loyal discount shoppers who previously would divide spend between discounters and say Tesco, but who now choose to spend an increasing proportion in the discount shop. The actual number of new discount shoppers is small.

So the Aldi challenge is to persuade those shoppers who already like much of what they see in Aldi to spend an increasing amount of their grocery budget there. And the key to achieving the objective is to bring the quality of its fresh food up to that of its packaged goods, but maintaining value. Already work is underway and Aldi stand a very good chance of continuing the growth levels already experienced.

Morrisons is one of the “big four” supermarkets, and the only one growing faster than the market average. It is managing to combine growth with increased profits.

Their success so far is down to the quality and value of their fresh food, and they now want to extend this expertise to online shopping. To this end they purchased a stake in FreshDirect,  the New York based company heralded as a leader in online. If Morrisons get this right they could be on to a winner as one of the main gripes about buying food on line is that fresh food is of variable quality, too near its sell by date and often the first choice is substituted for something less acceptable.

Waitrose today published its half year results, and whilst it is achieving sales growth of 9%, profits are down by 14%. Waitrose is chasing growth in a big way, by opening more stores, improving its online business, and promoting more heavily. Its challenge is to expand from its niche without losing the emphasis on quality and service that has made it successful, and the strategy is not without risk. As a privately owned company it has more time than most to get the model right, but at some stage it will need to restore profitability.

The M&S challenge is different. You cannot do your weekly shop there, so what CEO Marc Bolland and the team have to do is develop a food offer that cannot be bought in supermarkets. The answer according to Bolland is to make M&S even more special, putting delicatessens into bigger shops, upping the specialness of the bakery section, and featuring products little known in the UK but acknowledged as outstanding in other countries like Iberico ham and fresh burrata cheese (a mixture of mozzarella and cream apparently!).

These  moves are unlikely to transform performance. Introducing such products is merely a difference of degree – another step along the rarity spectrum. It is not the radical, totally new meeting of a consumer need that has characterised M&S success in food in the past. In bygone days M&S was noted for pioneering, whether it was exotic sandwiches where previously only cheese and pickle was available, or ready meals which allowed a harassed meal provider to put something on the table which not only tasted great but was whipped up in half an hour, or previously unheard of  fruit and veg.

Here we have four different companies all with different growth strategies. All will be convinced that their strategies will be successful. Time will tell who has got it right.

Food for Thought from Marks and Spencer

Last week, after years of lacklustre performance, Marks and Spencer announced that in the last 16 weeks food sales have grown by 5.2% on a like for like basis. This is a better result than Sainsbury, or Tesco, or Asda. With a 3.7% market share Marks is still tiny, but what makes them worth watching is that historically they have set the pace in food innovation. What Marks started others followed, and food buying has been transformed as a result. They were, for example, pioneers in ready meals, leaders in getting exotic fruits and vegetables in the shopping bag, and the company that made a sandwich lunch something special.

They then lost their creative edge, and competitors not just copied but improved on what they had done.

Does the recent food performance mean they have got their edge back?

Marc Bolland their new chief executive said that growth was down to a combination of aggressive price cutting offers and innovation, with 370 new lines being launched in the last three months.

Certainly they are promoting heavily. A wall of special offers greets the shopper. In the meat area, there were bacon, chicken, sausages, small beef joints, and the ever present mince all priced at 3 for £10. There were offers in fruit and veg, fish, ready meals, desserts and wine. In this they are no different from any other supermarket.

What about the innovation? The offer is certainly more exciting than it was, with ever more exotic combinations of flavours in a ready meal, and even more indulgent biscuits and cakes. There were also some new ideas such as “One Pot Casserole” where diced beef, ready peeled and chopped vegetables, and a cook in sauce could all be purchased for a fiver, thus encouraging shoppers to try something other than mince, with minimum hassle.

Importantly, the merchandising was good, with green coloured “new” stickers highlighting every new product.

The question is whether enough has been done for Marks to regain its position as leader in food, and the answer just now, is probably not. What is on offer is a variation on a theme rather than a genuine breakthrough. There is a limit to the amount of exotic and indulgent food that people will buy, either through monetary constraints or the inability to stomach yet another fancy meal.

It will be interesting to hear in November how Mr. Bolland intends to take the business forward. Premium indulgence leavened with price cuts is fine, but more will be needed to keep M&S food sales moving ahead.

How Do You Solve a Problem Like Falling Lamb Consumption - Thoughts from Sheep 2010

There was standing room only for the session on marketing at last week's NSA event where farmer Geoffrey Probert, May Hill representative Henry Dunn, Remi Fourrier from EBLEX, and Steve McClean of Marks and Spencer discussed a variety of issues.

The problem of plummeting lamb eating in the home market was addressed, and the general concensus was that quality is fine, its all about price.

For Remi Fourrier, who is responsible for growing British lamb sales to France from it current one in 5 lambs produced, the main issue is encouraging younger people to eat lamb, and that ways had to be found to make lamb more convenient to cook.

Henry Dunn, representing May Hill who sell to Sainsbury, pointed to the success of Cotswold Lamb which he feels works because it has a strong provenance story. Consumers like the idea of knowing where their lamb has come from and how it was produced. Steve McClean agreed. Marks and Spencer shoppers are interested in provenance too, and increasingly in the impact of products on the environment. M&S are planning to add more environmental compliance measures into the standards it requires from producers.

All mentioned that consumers of ethnic origin eat large quantities of sheep meat - a figure of 27% was quoted, but all recognised the sensitivity of slaughter procedures required by some.

Returning to the quality issue, there were a couple of comments about grass fed lamb producing a top quality product. This was considered to be one of the reasons behind New Zealand lamb's good and consistent quality. Marks and Spencer source from NZ in our winter, and aim for grass fed lamb in summer for this reason. As Mr. McClean said "It's all about ensuring consumers have a good eating experience when they buy lamb".

So no silver bullets emerged from the debate.

As a firm believer that, whatever the product, price is a problem if the quality does not match up, I was surprised that quality and consistency of lamb did not get more of an airing.

A look at WorldPanel numbers supplied by BPEX shows that in the 12 weeks to July 11th, lamb sales dropped by a further 8%. So the problem of what to do about falling lamb sales is not going away.

What Will Marc Bolland Do To Revive M&S Food Business?

Marc Bolland’s move to Marks & Spencer has sparked excitement in the City and attracted acres of coverage in mainstream news. The interest reflects M&S’s position as jewel of the High Street, leading purveyor of the nation’s underwear, and reliable backstop when looking for clothing basics - and Bolland’s success at supermarket giant Morrisons.

Marks badly needs someone who can revive it's £4.2bn turnover food business. Performance has been nothing short of dismal with falling margins and severe loss of market share, and the decline cannot be put down to difficult economic times. The problems arose well before the credit crunch, and continue despite a slight loosening of consumer purse strings, and recovery in its rival Waitrose.

Mr. Bolland's experience at Morrisons equips him well for the challenge. So what might he do?

First he has to understand what the problem is. Current management seems to think it is all about price, and has responded with hundreds of offers and deals such as “Dine in for £10”. This might help in the short term as Marks' food is expensive, but it is not a long term fix. Neither is the plan to introduce branded products such as Coca Cola, for Marks has neither the expertise nor the buying power to be a general grocery shop. What Marc Bolland must do is solve the basic problem which is this - as of today there is no compelling reason either to visit M&S on a regular basis, or to spend much when you get there.

How different it was a few years ago. M&S's initial success came because it offered outstanding quality which was unavailable from anywhere else. Then in a brilliant piece of market understanding and pioneering innovation it developed its range of ready meals, offering culinary delights which an increasingly widely travelled public encountered when abroad but had no idea how to replicate at home. Ready meal sales went from strength to strength as time pressed but affluent consumers bought a no-preparation evening meal, not giving too much thought to nutritional content or having to double up because portion sizes were tiny. M&S sandwiches were a leading development too, offering fresh and delicious lunchtime fodder at a time when the only takeaway food was a sausage roll and packet of crisps.

But then the world caught up with Marks. Supermarkets matched them on quality by introducing premium ranges, consumers shunned ready meals preferring instead to do some actual cooking at half the price and twice the goodness, and lunchtime options became available everywhere from the likes of Gregg’s the bakers, or coffee outlets such as Costa and Starbucks.

So Mr. Bolland, what is needed here is a return to the historical ability of Marks and Spencer to see the future with crystal clarity, to anticipate consumer trends, and give us what we want before we even realise we want it.

Supplier Relationships
On the supplier relationship side, we know that Morrisons supported British farmers under Bolland’s leadership, committing to stocking only British beef and lamb. Also that they set up Morrisons Farm, a 700 acre holding on the Dumfries house estate in Scotland where the objective is to be a “leading centre of excellence in applied farming research”. It is to be hoped that he will continue Marks’ constructive approach to farming relationships, and commitment to stocking only British beef, salmon, chicken, pork and turkey. He might even go all British on lamb. Whether he will bring a tougher negotiating stance generally to suppliers remains to be seen, but with slipping margins some changes are likely.