Meat Eating Trends – Beef and Pork Meat Down, Lamb up, Chicken Nearly 50% of All Meat Purchases

From grocery researchers Kantar Worldpanel comes news that after years of plummeting consumption volume sales of lamb grew by 14% in the year ending August 13^th 2013. (Source: BPEX). By contrast pork consumption dropped by 5% and beef by 2%.

The reason is price of course. Over the same period the price of lamb per kilo dropped by 5% to £7.85 per kilo, compared with an increase of 6% for both beef and pork.

Staples like bacon and sausages have suffered from price increases too. The price hikes have led to a  2% drop in bacon sales, and sausage sales are down by 4%. The only other sector to show an increase is sliced cooked meats which grew sales by 1%.

At the same time as these figures were released we heard Andrew Large of the British Poultry Council predicting that by next year chicken will account for over half of all meat eaten, up from just over a third 20years ago.  He attributes the growth in sales to price. In the last two decades he says, chicken prices went up by 31%, whereas beef prices went up by 50% and lamb prices have doubled.

It is easy to over analyse the figures. We can though conclude that price dictates consumers’ buying habits and they readily switch from one type of protein to another. Which means that the price of, say, beef cannot rise in isolation without there being a knock on effect on consumption.

We might also conclude that the image and benefits of red meat, particularly British produced meat, need to be constantly reinforced to consumers. If they felt that red meat was a “must have” then they would bite the bullet and purchase the same quantity regardless of price rises. Yet despite the increase in lamb sales in the last year, the overall volume sold of red meat including bacon and sausages dropped by 2 %. This may seem small, but from a producer perspective a drop in demand is a cause for concern as it all too often leads to oversupply and a consequent fall in farm gate prices. 

The Changing Shape of Meat Eating

The British Pig Executive (BPEX) has published data about meat consumption comparing the year ending 25th January 2009 with the previous 12 months, and the figures give an interesting insight into how consumers are coping with the twin challenges of rising prices and recessionary nervousness.

Faced with some whopping price rises on red meat*, and a conscience led move towards buying more welfare friendly chicken, I thought that consumers would just cut back on the amount of meat, fish and poultry they bought. In fact total consumption of these foods has remained the same as last year at just under 3 million tonnes.

There are though quite big changes in the types of protein bought.

Up are sales of burgers (+6%), sausages (+3%), frozen fish (+4%), pastry based meats (+2%) and fresh fish (+1%).

Down are sales of canned meats (-5%), lamb (-4%), beef (-3%), pork (-2%), and chilled ready meals (-5%).

Poultry is still by far the biggest meat bought, and sales are level with last year.

Within the red meat sector there has been a well documented trend towards buying cheaper cuts. Lamb mince has seen the biggest rise in sales followed by pork loin, stewing lamb, beef mince and stewing beef. The biggest falls have been in roasting cuts of lamb, beef and pork shoulder, and also in beef steaks. What seems to be happening is that people are buying red meat less often, and when they do buy, they buy less at any one time.

The trends make sense. Consumers are managing their budgets carefully. They have turned to meats such as bacon, sausages, and burgers which are not just cheaper but allow for stricter portion control, and so less waste. They are prepared to spend time at home now, cooking those cheaper cuts, rather than go out and pay restaurant prices. The trend towards frozen foods is being seen generally, not just in fish, again because of price. And the move away from ready meals reflects unwillingness to pay high prices, but also the rise in home cooking.

Perhaps the most surprising thing is that these shifts in consumer behaviour are large, and have happened very quickly. They can have a dramatic effect on profitability, for example in red meat where demand for expensive cuts has plummeted and best cuts are either being minced or sold off at vastly reduced prices. They forcibly illustrate the need to keep a very close eye on trends, and to be prepared to change tack to meet consumer needs.

* Notes on price rises

The data shows that in the last year prices per kilo have risen as follows: beef +11%, lamb +9%, pork +10%, bacon +11%, sausages +7% and sliced meats +8%. These rises are averages and reflect the trend to cheaper cuts. Like for like comparisons on each cut will show much higher increases. Price increases are accelerating, for example in the last 12 weeks, beef has gone up by 16%, and lamb by 11%, compared with the same period a year ago. Further changes in the patterns of consumption are therefore likely.