Rapid Changes in Meat Eating - All Down to Price and Horsegate.

 From BPEX and EBLEX comes interesting data about the nation’s meat eating trends. BPEX’s quarterly category report shows that fresh meat consumption in the year to mid October 2013 is down in tonnage by 2%, although up in value by 5%.

It is the differences in species consumption which are most fascinating, and they show that consumers are quick to change their buying patterns according to price.

For the first time for years the amount of fresh chicken eaten has gone down. The 3.5% drop is significant when considering that in the previous year consumption grew by 7%. The change is driven by prices which on average went up by almost 10%.

On the other side of the coin an average reduction in prices of 4% has seen lamb consumption grow by a whopping 12.5%. Again, this is a huge change in buying habits for the lamb market had been dropping year on year since 2008. BPEX tells us that pork, where volume sales have dropped by 4%, has been the biggest loser with leg and shoulder joint sales falling as consumers switch to lamb for their Sunday roast.

Over the same period beef consumption dropped by 1% as prices rose by an average of 6%.

 Horsegate fits into the picture because, EBLEX tells us, consumer concerns about exactly what it was they were eating drove retailers to buy more British produced meat. As a result supplies of beef, chicken and pork were tight and prices rose.

There are signs though that the pendulum may be swinging again. Stories are appearing about sizeable increases in imports of Polish and Irish beef, which if sold at a low enough price may trump shopper worries about how the meat was produced.

BPEX also publishes details of which supermarkets over or under trade in fresh meat relative to their market share for all groceries.

Tesco, ASDA, and the Coop under trade. Sainsbury, Waitrose, discounters ALDI and LIDL and beleaguered Morrison’s overtrade. Price alone is therefore not a guide to how well a supermarket might do on fresh meat sales. The overtraders are a mixture of the upmarket and pricey (Waitrose and Sainsbury) and the “noted for low prices” discounters and Morrisons. Conversely Asda and Tesco might be said to be operating at the lower end of the price spectrum yet under trade.

Doing well in meat demands a tricky balance of good value, good quality, provenance and trust. Get it wrong and shoppers will vote with their feet and take their meat buying elsewhere. The challenge is made more difficult by shoppers' increasing tendency to change their buying behaviour with lightning speed. 

Meat Eating Trends – Beef and Pork Meat Down, Lamb up, Chicken Nearly 50% of All Meat Purchases

From grocery researchers Kantar Worldpanel comes news that after years of plummeting consumption volume sales of lamb grew by 14% in the year ending August 13^th 2013. (Source: BPEX). By contrast pork consumption dropped by 5% and beef by 2%.

The reason is price of course. Over the same period the price of lamb per kilo dropped by 5% to £7.85 per kilo, compared with an increase of 6% for both beef and pork.

Staples like bacon and sausages have suffered from price increases too. The price hikes have led to a  2% drop in bacon sales, and sausage sales are down by 4%. The only other sector to show an increase is sliced cooked meats which grew sales by 1%.

At the same time as these figures were released we heard Andrew Large of the British Poultry Council predicting that by next year chicken will account for over half of all meat eaten, up from just over a third 20years ago.  He attributes the growth in sales to price. In the last two decades he says, chicken prices went up by 31%, whereas beef prices went up by 50% and lamb prices have doubled.

It is easy to over analyse the figures. We can though conclude that price dictates consumers’ buying habits and they readily switch from one type of protein to another. Which means that the price of, say, beef cannot rise in isolation without there being a knock on effect on consumption.

We might also conclude that the image and benefits of red meat, particularly British produced meat, need to be constantly reinforced to consumers. If they felt that red meat was a “must have” then they would bite the bullet and purchase the same quantity regardless of price rises. Yet despite the increase in lamb sales in the last year, the overall volume sold of red meat including bacon and sausages dropped by 2 %. This may seem small, but from a producer perspective a drop in demand is a cause for concern as it all too often leads to oversupply and a consequent fall in farm gate prices. 

How Consumers Decide What Meat to Buy

According to a recent piece of market research by EBLEX 23% of people are cutting back on the amount of meat they buy. This is not good news as a drop in demand tends to mean over supply and falling farmgate prices.

Conscious of the need to stimulate demand the EBLEX research goes on to analyse how people make their meat buying decisions and what levers can be pulled to encourage them to buy more. They interviewed 1200 shoppers in stores owned by the 4 main supermarkets.

Getting the meat purchase right is important to shoppers. They spend an average of 74 seconds at the meat fixture, considerably more than they did 10 years ago in a similar piece of research, and more than anywhere else in store apart from the veg counter.

EBLEX highlights the importance of appearance in the buying decision, and it is certainly true that appearance trumps price in most instances. If a piece of meat does not look right it will not be bought. Whilst the research does not go on to tell us what it is about appearance that matters we can guess that too much fat, an over watery look, flabby appearance, and too light or too dark are all flaws which are just not tolerated.

However we cannot dismiss the importance of price.

People are very price conscious. They buy on the price of the pack, not pence per kilo and of those questioned in the research 80% knew what they had paid for the product just bought. 35% of those questioned had bought products on promotion.

Some meat is more price sensitive than others. Pork is price sensitive, as is beef mince. Chicken legs and thighs are particularly price sensitive, and at the other end of the scale steak is too. There is clearly a price point over which people will not go however good looking the product.

The research confirms that meat purchase is not species specific. It indicates that 35% of people will change to an alternative if the species they first thought of is not available in the way they want it, compared with 30% who will change to another cut within a species. Decisions about roasting joints are especially fluid with 48% being prepared to change to another species.  17% will leave without buying anything if they cannot find exactly what they want.

This piece of work from EBLEX demonstrates that the meat buying decision is complex. Unsurprisingly in a category now so expensive that packs are security tagged people take their time over purchase. If something does not look right it will be rejected. If it is not priced right it will be rejected. If one species does not provide what is wanted then shoppers will in many cases move to an alternative. This is an important finding as it suggests that merely putting the price up in store and funneling the incremental back to the farm gate will not work, unless all species go up in price together, which is an unlikely event.

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What is clear is that all parts of the food chain need to work closely together to deliver what the shopper wants. This represents a colossal communication challenge when according to DEFRA there are 86,000 beef farms, 73,000 sheep farms and 9,000 pig farms in the UK.

Being Creative with a Commodity - How Meat Marketers are Adding Value

These beefburgers, with their reference to breed and Britishness  neatly capture some of the ways that marketers are adding value to meat. The British reference is important as consumers continue to seek reassurance about where their food comes from, and buying British becomes more of a consideration.

Breed is increasingly being used as a value adding tool. Aberdeen Angus has for a long time been seen by consumers as a quality breed. McDonalds sells an Angus burger costing more than the standard variant, and Waitrose emphasises meat from Angus as well as Hereford cattle. Now Morrisons are embracing breed differentiation, selling beef from Shorthorns (and paying producers a premium in the process).

At the other end of the breed spectrum Kobe beef from Waygu cattle is gaining a reputation for quality, so much so that at the request of a Japanese chef, an Australian farmer is feeding his Waygus a litre of wine every day.

Making meat meals more convenient to prepare and serve also adds value as many consumers are nervous about cooking meat, and, given its price they want to be reassured that the end product will taste great. Hence the rise of "foolproof" products such as Simply Cook where all ingredients are available in one pack, the size of portion is strictly controlled, and the food just has to be flung into the oven for the specified time.

These cook in the bag products from Maggi are a cheaper solution, but offer the same benefits.

Value can be added through packaging innovation. Some consumers do not like to handle meat, so Tesco's meatballs are packed individually, in a tray like an egg carton so that the product does not have to be touched, and Waitrose sells their roasting chickens in a hard case rather than film for the same reason. Note the saltire and reference to Scotch on the pack to reinforce where the meat came from.

All this innovation notwithstanding, price remains a key part of the value equation. It is no accident that all of the above featured products from Tesco came with a promotional offer - mostly two for a discounted price. It is a sobering reminder that people will not pay if they do not think a product is worth the money.

Red Meat Consumption Update - Beef and Pork Steady, Lamb Plummets

Shoppers bought 19% less lamb in the 12 months to mid July 2011 than they did in the previous year. (Source: Kantar Worldpanel)

By contrast, volume sales of beef are up 1%, pork and sausages up 2%, sliced cooked meats up 3%, and bacon up 5%. Overall, purchases of red meat have remained level with last year, indicating perhaps that lamb buyers have migrated to alternative red meat options.

This is perhaps not surprising given that the average price of a kilo of pork is £4.71p, and beef £6.12p, both around what they were last year. The price of a kilo of lamb though has increased by 14%, and now stands at £7.94p, the knock on effect of higher prices being paid to farmers for their live lambs.

Consumers are walking away, put off by having to pay around £5 for a couple of chops, or £13 for a small leg of lamb. Only 22% of people buy lamb every 4 weeks compared with 37% buying pork and 55% buying beef, and when they do buy they buy less – 1kg of lamb compared with 1.5kg for pork, and 1.4kg for beef.

The figures should make those advocating higher retail prices for beef and pork pause for thought. So far, despite the difficult economic climate, sales of these meats have held up well. The question is whether they are sufficiently special to persuade people to buy despite price hikes. Or would demand just fall as it has with lamb? And will a fall in demand lead to oversupply of pigs and cattle, and reduce the price paid to farmers anyway?

Many factors influence prices paid to farmers, and it is difficult to find a clear link between retail prices and those paid at the farm gate. The lamb experience shows that domestic eating of lamb can fall dramatically yet prices paid for live lambs stay buoyant due to external factors like a strong euro, less imports and shrinking breeding flocks. By contrast, when farm gate prices for beef fell sharply last year due mostly to high quantities of dairy beef cattle, retail prices hardly moved at all, and consumption stayed about the same.

What is clear though is that a push too far on price will probably result in big falls in the amount of meat eaten, and  that the fundamentals of supply and demand tend to hold true in the long term. So, if farmgate prices are to remain higher following an increase in retail price in the home market, additional outlets for British cattle and pigs need to be found urgently. Not an easy task.

Is Increasing Beef Retail Prices the Solution to Falling Producer Prices?

The recent drop in finished cattle prices is causing understandable alarm.

The cause appears to be too much supply and not enough demand, as spring calved stock and more dairy bull beef arrive on the market yet beef consumption remains sluggish and exports less strong. Indeed the National Beef Association has recommended that farmers stagger supplies to avoid a spring peak.

Pressure on producer prices regularly ignites calls for retail prices to rise and the additional revenue shared across the supply chain, because, says conventional wisdom, beef consumption is inelastic, meaning that increased prices will have little effect on volumes.

But is the conventional wisdom true?

In 2007 Eblex modelled the effect of a 10% increase in the price paid to producers on the volume of each cut of meat. Adjusting for slippage as prices work through the supply chain, this meant an average increase of 5% at retail, and the findings by cut were as follows.

A 3.2% rise in the price of stewing steak resulted in a volume decline of 1.3%. A 5.9% rise on mince led to a volume drop of 1.7%, a 3.8% rise in the price of steak led to a drop of 2.7%, and a rise of 6% on top quality roasting joints led to a volume drop of 16.1%.

Real figures from the market place confirm that price rises lead to volume declines. In 2008 at the height of retail price inflation what was then TNS Worldpanel (now Kantar) recorded that average beef prices went up by 11% and volumes dropped by 3%. Shoppers shunned the more expensive cuts like steak and roasts in favour of mince and stewing steak, yet this behaviour change could not prevent beef market volumes from declining.

In the 12 months to April 2010 prices were up 2% on the previous year, and volumes were flat. There has been a slight pick up in the last twelve weeks but all the evidence seems to indicate that beef sales are respond to price changes.

Some have suggested that the price of mince should rise, but this needs to be handled with care.

Mince is the cheapest entry point to beef. It is versatile, quick and convenient, and acts as a regular reminder of beef’s excellent taste and nutritional values. Over aggressive pricing risks people dropping out of the beef market completely, for they will not gravitate to other cuts, none of which deliver mince’s unique combination of price and convenience, but instead turn to alternative proteins, the obvious one being chicken.


I do not think that a market where volumes drop year after year does any player in the beef supply chain any favours. And whereas the declines might be just two or three percent in the short term, there is every chance that they will accelerate as consumers get out of the habit of buying beef, and retailers shrink the space devoted to it. This is happening on lamb right now where volumes are still dropping - down 4 % 2008 v 2007 and down a further 9% in the twelve months to April 2010.

Tough Times for Butchers

It’s a hard time to be a butcher. TNS* figures for the 52 weeks to August show butchers sales down by 5.2%, which compares to an increase of 5.7% for meat sales through all shops. Whilst the turnover figures are bad, tonnage sales are horrific. Butchers are selling 20% less pork than last year, 18% less lamb, 12% less beef, and 15% less sausages. And year on year declines are getting worse. Tonnage sales in the last 12 weeks show a 24% drop in sausage sales, 18% drop in beef, 16% in lamb and 18% in pork.

Meat sales generally have been struggling, but butchers seem to be suffering especially badly. The comparable numbers for the total meat market in the last twelve weeks are sausages +2%, beef -2%, pork -1%, and lamb -16%.

Price is likely to one of the problems, with many people thinking that butchers are expensive. The price difference between the average butcher and the top 4 multiples is about £1 per kilo dearer on lamb, 54p per kilo on pork, and 26p a kilo on beef.

Another issue might be that you never know when buying from the butcher quite what the bill will be. And it’s a brave person who, confronted with more cost than expected, asks for the piece to be cut smaller. Contrast this with supermarkets where everything is price marked, you know exactly what the cost will be, and can be confident of sticking to your budget.

The meat trade needs strong butchers as they are a way to avoid total domination by supermarkets, and some butchers are a beacon of hope in a generally gloomy picture. The reasons seem to be firstly, a refusal to compromise on quality, secondly a willingness to embrace consumer trends such as selling locally produced fully traceable meat, and thirdly, being prepared to experiment with supermarket type tactics like prepriced joints and promotional offers, all of which helps keep their customers loyal in difficult economic times.

*TNS is Taylor Nelson Sofres.

The Changing Shape of Meat Eating

The British Pig Executive (BPEX) has published data about meat consumption comparing the year ending 25th January 2009 with the previous 12 months, and the figures give an interesting insight into how consumers are coping with the twin challenges of rising prices and recessionary nervousness.

Faced with some whopping price rises on red meat*, and a conscience led move towards buying more welfare friendly chicken, I thought that consumers would just cut back on the amount of meat, fish and poultry they bought. In fact total consumption of these foods has remained the same as last year at just under 3 million tonnes.

There are though quite big changes in the types of protein bought.

Up are sales of burgers (+6%), sausages (+3%), frozen fish (+4%), pastry based meats (+2%) and fresh fish (+1%).

Down are sales of canned meats (-5%), lamb (-4%), beef (-3%), pork (-2%), and chilled ready meals (-5%).

Poultry is still by far the biggest meat bought, and sales are level with last year.

Within the red meat sector there has been a well documented trend towards buying cheaper cuts. Lamb mince has seen the biggest rise in sales followed by pork loin, stewing lamb, beef mince and stewing beef. The biggest falls have been in roasting cuts of lamb, beef and pork shoulder, and also in beef steaks. What seems to be happening is that people are buying red meat less often, and when they do buy, they buy less at any one time.

The trends make sense. Consumers are managing their budgets carefully. They have turned to meats such as bacon, sausages, and burgers which are not just cheaper but allow for stricter portion control, and so less waste. They are prepared to spend time at home now, cooking those cheaper cuts, rather than go out and pay restaurant prices. The trend towards frozen foods is being seen generally, not just in fish, again because of price. And the move away from ready meals reflects unwillingness to pay high prices, but also the rise in home cooking.

Perhaps the most surprising thing is that these shifts in consumer behaviour are large, and have happened very quickly. They can have a dramatic effect on profitability, for example in red meat where demand for expensive cuts has plummeted and best cuts are either being minced or sold off at vastly reduced prices. They forcibly illustrate the need to keep a very close eye on trends, and to be prepared to change tack to meet consumer needs.

* Notes on price rises

The data shows that in the last year prices per kilo have risen as follows: beef +11%, lamb +9%, pork +10%, bacon +11%, sausages +7% and sliced meats +8%. These rises are averages and reflect the trend to cheaper cuts. Like for like comparisons on each cut will show much higher increases. Price increases are accelerating, for example in the last 12 weeks, beef has gone up by 16%, and lamb by 11%, compared with the same period a year ago. Further changes in the patterns of consumption are therefore likely.