Big 4 Grocers Pricing Strategies - Who is Winning?

Latest Kantar worldpanel data for 12 weeks ending 22^nd May 2016 shows Tesco sales “stabilising”, Sainsbury falling and Asda falling disastrously.  Morrisons is difficult to read because of their store disposal programme.

Each has adopted a different pricing strategy in an effort to hang on to their customers and fight Aldi and Lidl, who are still showing double digit growth.

Tesco continues to promote with offers like buy x number for £y, and buy one get one free. It has rebranded its fresh product value lines, turning them into the “Farms” range, and calling them nice, rural British sounding names like Boswell Farm beef, and Woodside Farm pork products.

Questionable as this move may appear, given that these farms are entirely fictitious and the produce often comes from abroad, Dave Lewis the Tesco CEO has spent vast sums of money on developing the range and is convinced that it allows Tesco to compete with discounters but with consistent quality. So Tesco continues with a mix of pricing approaches, most notably continuing with heavy promotions.

Asda by contrast is totally committed to everyday low pricing (EDLP) with few or no special offers. They are convinced that this is what consumers want but their sales decline is accelerating with the latest 12 weeks data showing a drop of 5%.

Sainsbury also reckon that consumers do not want promotions, preferring instead to know that prices will be consistent week after week. Sainsbury are in the process of transition to their new EDLP strategy, but sales dropped by 1.5% in the recent 12 weeks.

Overall, it is a patchy picture, but the evidence so far suggests that abandoning promotions leads to a drop in sales.

The fact is that what consumers want and what they say they want are two totally different things. Any change in strategy, particularly in an area as sensitive as price demands a thorough understanding of consumer behaviour.

Making the right decision is made more challenging when a strategy plays into the hands of competitors. Both Aldi and Lidl follow an EDLP strategy, but the flaw in Asda’s approach is that they will never be as cheap as Aldi or Lidl, and adopting EDLP makes the price comparison totally transparent. Transparency is of course to be welcomed, but shoppers need to be offered something which in their mind offsets the price differential. It could superb quality, or a range more tailored to their needs than a discounter can offer.

And to the point that price is not everything, the Kantar data also tells us that Aldi’s premium own label brand Specially Select grew by 15%in the latest 12 weeks, and Lidl’s deluxe range has grown by 65%.

None of the pricing strategies adopted by the “Big 4” seem to be proving outright winners in the fierce competition to grow sales.

Price Still the Most Important Consideration for at Least 35% of Shoppers

From IGD comes research which groups shoppers by attitudes and behaviour rather than the more traditional demographic analysis of AB, C1 etc..

IGD have found 6 categories of shopper:

Brand purists (26%)
These shoppers are more brand loyal than the average shopper, and will plan their shopping in the knowledge that they will be able to find the brands they like.

Habitual loyalists (13%)
Like to plan their shopping, buy familiar products and stick with one or two stores rather than shop around. They tend to be older, with an average age of 59.

Savings seekers (18%)
This is the group that puts price ahead of all other considerations.

 Discounter enthusiasts (17%)
Like savings seekers this group is also concerned with how much they spend on food and groceries but are not willing to compromise on quality 

Technology adopters (16%)
These shoppers have the highest interest in using technology for food and grocery shopping and do more online shopping than the average to save their precious time. They tend to be younger, London based, and shop frequently.

Foodie adventurists (10%)
Are the most likely to cook from scratch, try new recipes, and to buy new products on impulse.

It is dangerous to be overly definitive when assessing how to make snapshot data like this actionable, and shoppers will fall into more than one box, but some points jump out.

First, it is perilous to underplay the importance of price.  At least 35% of shoppers (savings seekers and discounter enthusiasts) are very price conscious, and it would not be rash to suggest that a good proportion of those in the other boxes are price conscious too. Indeed it is striking that the IGD has not found a category that subordinates price in favour of some other attribute.

Aldi certainly feels that price remains critical. It announced yesterday that it intended to be "cheapest for ever" in Britain, and cut its prices on meat fruit and vegetables. Meanwhile Sainsbury announced that it was pulling away from multi-buy promotions in favour of everyday low prices.

Secondly, people remain very traditional in their food buying habits. Only 10% can be described as adventuresome compared with the 39% of brand purists and habitual loyalists who do not stray too far from the familiar.

Thirdly, the percentage of technology adopters is surprisingly small given all the hype we read about consumers supposedly turning in droves to shopping on smartphones and tablets. The number may explain why online grocery shopping  is not reaching the average 15% per annum growth rate some had predicted. Ocado, the dedicated online grocer, clocked up 13% growth in the most recent quarter, and Sainsbury just under 10%. Tesco stated that their growth over Christmas was around 5%. Tellingly, Dave Lewis, Tesco chief executive officer, said that the company was being “much more thoughtful about the economics of online versus the offer elsewhere in the estate.” , which suggests that Tesco does not intend to push for high online growth rates at the expense of profit.

Aldi and Lidl Growth Potential - Three Key Numbers

Institute of Grocery Distribution research about how shoppers plan to buy their Christmas food reveals three telling figures about the potential for Aldi and Lidl.

Of those shoppers intending to visit a discounter -

-          62% will do so to save money

-          40% will go because of the quality of the food

-          17% will go because of fancy foods like lobster tails

The numbers confirm what we already know, namely that low prices are the overriding reason for discount shopping. But what may be surprising is that low prices are so much more important than quality.

Equally telling is the finding that, even at Christmas, only 17% will visit a discounter for speciality foods. The lobster tails and fine wines may be attracting the media hype, but at heart they are a publicity gathering fringe activity, unlikely to be generating big volumes. It is the low prices that matter to most discount shoppers, and the presence or absence of more exotic foods will not matter a jot to them.

The current gap between price and quality puts a ceiling on discounters’ growth potential, but finding the right solutions will not be easy.

The key is to understand what consumers mean when they talk about quality, but not all consumers will view quality in the same way.

Many regular Aldi and Lidl shoppers are delighted with the quality of the foods they buy there, not because they are prepared to compromise, rather they have tried the various products, and know the ones that they like. These precious core customers must not be alienated.

It is likely that the gap between price and quality is greatest among less frequent shoppers. But quality takes many forms. It could be lack of choice that makes shoppers down rate product quality. It could be simply that the discounter version does not taste as good as a branded equivalent. On fresh foods it could be lack of consistency -some days the products are top notch in terms of freshness, appearance, texture and flavour, but some days they are not.   Aldi and Lidl seem to have taken the view that the answer is to add a premium range akin to Tesco’s Finest or Asda’s Extra Special, and throw in the exotic range of food and wines. They will need to do more to bring the number of shoppers buying because of quality closer to the number buying on price, and they must not lose their price position in the process.

Meanwhile, their competitors have their own tightrope to walk, and theirs is the degree to which they can reduce prices, yet keep their shareholders on side. 

Recent performance statistics issued by Kantar Worldpanel indicate that quality issues are not yet hampering the discounters who continue to forge ahead, helped by a number of new stores, and the continued lack of radical pricing action from any of the traditional supermarkets There have been murmurings that the tide may be turning in favour of the mainstream supermarkets, but if so, it is turning very slowly.

Aldi and Lidl – How Big Can They Get?

This is a question being addressed with some trepidation in the boardrooms of traditional supermarkets, their anxiety heightened by the news that  Aldi and Lidl combined have now reached a 10% share of the Uk grocery market.  What is particularly scary is that it took 9 years for Aldi and Lidl to get from 2.5% share to 5%, but only three to double again to the current 10%.

 At the moment they seem unstoppable.

For starters they are building more stores at a time when all other supermarkets are contracting. Aldi and Lidl between them have plans to open 171 new outlets, compared with 29 for the Big 4, and Lidl has stated that it wants to more than double its number of stores, from 629 now to 1500. Aldi is aiming for 1000.

And , a factor that is not often commented on is that both companies are privately owned and so, unlike the Big 4, (Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda and Morrisons) are not constrained by shareholder demands for ever higher profits. The discounters can invest as much as they want, be it in ever lower prices, or store refurbishments, or colossal marketing campaigns, without wondering how the City will react.

Their aggressive marketing seems to be working. According to research company Kantar Worldpanel, Aldi and Lidl have added 1 million more shoppers in the last year, and they have gone more up market, with the result that 31% of their shoppers are now in the wealthier AB social group.

They have taken the upcoming Christmas season very seriously with blanket advertising campaigns, and glossy brochures given away free in Saturday and Sunday papers. A flip through the Aldi brochure reminds readers that they can buy Canadian lobster, British free range goose,  British RSPCA assured Bronze free range turkey, British leg of lamb, and British Caramel and Bourbon ham joint.

Lidl reminds us that it won “Grocer of the Year”, then points out its Marine Stewardship Council certified lobster, RSPCA assured pork, British Bronze turkeys, organic and free range eggs.

How clever to acknowledge major consumer trends in this way – British, welfare friendly, and a bit special.

Both companies pride themselves on their wine and spirits expertise, and compete well with the big 4. Aldi in particular has recognised a competitive opportunity by setting up an online wines and spirits arm, which, some suggest will compete with thatt offered by Waitrose.

So far so rosy. What might stop the march of the discounters?

Four factors could hinder growth

First, Aldi and Lidl might lose sight of what made them great in the first place, namely rock bottom prices . This is what happened to Morrisons who, in an effort to broaden appeal to more affluent shoppers, took their eye off their core customers who could no longer find the good value to which they were accustomed, and were turned off by gimmicks such as misted vegetables and overly fancy foods. There are already signs that this could be happening to Lidl who are refurbishing stores and changing their range of goods to more closely resemble premium outlets. 

Secondly, the big 4 might take decisive action on becoming price competitive, as opposed to tinkering around the edges, which is the case at the moment. Asda for example say that they have reduced the price gap between themselves and the discounters to 10%, and are aiming for a 5% gap. They say that 4 years ago the gap was 20%. Of course this assumes that the discounters would not reduce prices still further, leading to a zero sum game.

Thirdly, discounters might lose out because they do not offer online shopping, apart from the Aldi alcohol venture. Online growth is predicted to continue, as retailers make their websites easier to use, particularly on smartphones and tablets, and more convenient with initiatives like click and collect.

Fourthly, many shoppers feel that they cannot  get everything they want from the limited range offered by discounters which means having to shop twice. There may be some who find this too inconvenient to bother with the discounters.  

Where might it end? Growth rates are slowing from the heady levels of a year ago, but still run at around 16%. The general consensus among industry watchers is that Aldi and Lidl will achieve a market share of around 15%, similar to that in Ireland, due mostly to store openings. Whether they get much beyond that is debatable.  In Germany, discounters have a 37% share, but the trade structure is different to the UK with fewer traditional supermarkets, but Source: BPEX).

even here there are signs that growth is levelling off.  In France, which has a grocery trade structure similar to the UK, the discounters got to around 14% market share, but traditional supermarkets fought back and share in 2014 fell to around 12%. (

One thing is not in doubt though – the discount grocers are now a significant part of the British grocery scene, and will continue to be so as long as they stick to what they are best at – low, low prices.

Grocery Growth Forecasts - Severe Implications for Supermarket Suppliers

The Institute of Grocery Distribution has just published forecasts of growth in the grocery market to 2020. In a nutshell they endorse trends already highlighted for online and discounters, saying that sales will continue to power ahead in these sectors. They signal that growth rates in convenience stores will decelerate, and that big stores, whilst remaining the place where most of us will do most of our grocery shopping, will show a sales decline.

One could challenge the exact numbers, for example the near doubling of online and discounter sales seems optimistic, but the shape of the growth makes sense, and whilst pages of commentary have been written about the effect of the forecasts on the grocers themselves, few write about the impact on suppliers – which could be huge.

Here’s why.

The key issues are the nature of the shopping environment in the growth sectors, and the steps mainstream supermarkets will  take to maintain profits as sales through bigger stores start to fall.

Consumers shop online for reasons of speed and convenience. Sitting in front of a small computer screen, or worse still, fiddling with tiny buttons on an even smaller smartphone or tablet, they just want to call up a previous order, tick what they need, possibly look at what’s on “special” and check out. Few can be bothered with browsing through hundreds pages of products on the off chance that they see something that takes their fancy. So, if a product is not on a favourites list, or being sold at a discount then it will not be bought.

Discounters too offer a different shopping environment. Typically they offer a very narrow range and stock few national brands. So the chances of getting listed by an Aldi or Lidl are small, which means that many suppliers will miss out on the discounters’ growth potential.

Convenience stores, who may be growing more slowly over the next years, but will still be a big sector, can only stock a limited range because of their size.

On the other side, mainstream grocers, grappling with falling sales in their big stores, are on a mission to streamline, which means stocking fewer brands and fewer pack sizes.

The outcome of all these factors means that the winners in the next 5 years will be:

-           big global companies who can buy their way into wherever they want to go. Examples are Coca Cola, Unilever, Nestle 

-          middle ranking companies who own leading brands with a loyal following. Examples would be Warburtons, McVities , Mueller

-          suppliers of retailers’ own brands who can operate at lowest costs

-           niche specialist players who appeal to supermarket operators because they offer something genuinely different, and who only require a listing in a small number of big stores to be viable.

Companies who may need a strategic rethink are those with brands which are rarely top of mind, non essential,  poorly advertised and promoted, and often bought on impulse because they caught the eye in store. Examples of this middle group might be Dairy Crest, Premier Foods, and smaller confectionery and soft drinks companies.

The impact on suppliers does not stop there. These middle ranking businesses also have suppliers and they too will be squeezed. Either their products will not be required, or they will have to offer sharp prices to maintain the business. We saw signs of this with Premier Foods “pay to stay” demands. Premier swiftly saw the injustice of this. Other businesses might not.

Are Grocery Shopping Habits Changing as Much as the Hype Leads Us to Believe?

Waitrose and Sainsbury have recently reported trading results. Waitrose’s were shocking on the profits front, down 24%. Sainsbury is struggling with declining sales, down 1.9% on a like for like basis for the 10 weeks to 14^th March.

These two businesses are not alone in facing challenges. The average growth in sales through supermarkets changed from an annual average of 4.7% in the years 2008-13, to a growth of just 1.3% in 2014.

Conventional wisdom notes that deflation is playing a part, but attributes most of the slow growth to seismic changes in the way shoppers shop, citing the switch to discounters, the demise of the big weekly supermarket shop in favour of smaller buys from convenience stores, and  online shopping,

Few would deny that discount stores are taking sales from traditional supermarkets. Certainly price deflation is playing a part as commodity prices drop and mainstream stores try and compete with discounters. As for the rest, Kantar World panel, the research company, offers a different view, based on their panel of 30,000 households.

Kantar are saying that the number of supermarket trips per shopper each year has not changed – 221 trips in 2010, and the same in 2014.

Neither has the number of items per basket changed – it is 10.5 items per trip, the same as it was in 2010.

Nor are consumers shopping around more. The average household visits 5 different supermarkets every 12 weeks, just as they did 4 years ago.

The rise of convenience/ top up shopping seems somewhat exaggerated too. In 2010 40.5% of spend went on the main shop, it is now 38.8%. And sales through convenience stores grew by only 0.2% in 2014 compared with 2013. What is happening in the convenience sector is that the big supermarkets have expanded their reach into smaller shops, taking trade from the independent sector. The result is a virtually static market/

As to online shopping, this has contributed to growth rather than slowing it down.

So what is going on?

Understanding  grocery sector performance requires separation of slow market growth from structural changes. The main reasons for the big growth rates between 2008 and 2013 were rampant food price inflation and greedy supermarkets. Both are now being corrected as commodity prices fall and supermarkets scramble to be seen as cheaper, having realised that their rapid price hikes have left them exposed to damaging competition from the likes of Aldi and Lidl.

Structural changes impact profit in two ways. Internet shopping is considerably less profitable than store shopping. The former requires costly ordering systems, personnel to pick and pack the goods, and van drivers and vans to deliver to the customer.  In the latter the customer  bears all of that cost. The rise in internet shopping means fewer sales through  bricks and mortar stores, leaving them underutilised but as expensive to run as they ever were, a problem compounded by the rise of Aldi and Lidl resulting in even fewer customers walking through  traditional supermarket doors.

The one thing industry watchers do agree on is that prices will not rise any time soon, neither will grocery profitability 

Tesco Growing, Discounters Slowing, But No Sign of a Return to Traditional Shopper Behaviour

Its a funny old world when grocery market watchers are full of smiles when Tesco manages to grow by 0.3% in the 12 weeks to 1^st February 2015, but signal gloom because discounters Aldi and Lidl “only” grew by 21% and 14% over the same period. (Kantar Worldpanel)

It depends where the start point is of course and a move into positive growth for Tesco after months of dropping sales probably does seem like a turning point. Equally, when a company has been growing by over 30% year on year as is the case with Aldi, then a slow down to 21% may seem like a turning point too.

What is clear though is that there is no sign of a rush back to traditional mainstream shopping patterns. Sainsbury's sales are declining by 1% and Asda by 1.7%, and the evidence suggests that the march of the discount grocers is likely to continue, albeit at slightly lower growth rates.

Take for example Aldi’s stated plans. They have committed to opening 70 more stores in 2015, and one of these will be its biggest ever, at 19,0000 sq feet compared with an average of 16,000 sq ft just now. More stores mean more shoppers, and bigger stores with their capacity to offer a wider range may mean a bigger spend per shopper.

There is no doubt that increasing numbers of us go to discounters. The IGD says that 55% of shoppers visited a discounter in December 2014 versus 36% in December 2010. This could be due to well publicised offers on alcohol, but there are also signs that increasing numbers are using discounters to do their main shop – 15% in December 2014 versus 3% in December 2010. And shoppers seem to like what they find when they get there - 52% of those visiting a discount shop spend over half their food and grocery shopping budget there.

Whilst it is the retailers who tend to get the headlines, the changing shape of the grocery market continues to cause headaches for suppliers. There are the well documented demands for reduced prices and extended payment terms from the big 4 mainstream grocers, and in a total grocery market which is growing by just over 1% the demands are rarely compensated for by growth. The problems then deepen, as the discount sector which is showing growth, tends not to stock brands, and buys most of its product lines from abroad.

Online Grocery Shopping - Growth Rates a Bit Disappointing?

Grocery market watchers still predict a doubling of growth in online grocery shopping by 2019, and are quick to criticise companies who seem not to be embracing the channel with gusto.

The enthusiasm is perhaps understandable. After all, many product sectors like books and music are nearly all bought on line, clothing is increasingly so, as are household goods.

Certainly, online is growing fast when compared with sales through stores. Tesco’s online sales over Christmas grew by 12.9%, Sainsbury  by 6%, Ocado by 14.8% and Waitrose by 26%.

   

However, the ONS tells us that total online sales of grocery products were up just 6% in December, and a look at trends through major grocers tells us that the rate of increase is slowing markedly. This despite heavy promotions,  the advent of click and collect and increased ownership of tablet computers and smartphones which are supposed to make the whole online shopping experience cheaper, easier, and therefore more attractive.

Retailers are ploughing enormous amounts of money into building their online presence.  Tesco is currently charging just £1 for certain delivery times, and allowing £15 off  the first shop. Ocado is offering £20 off the first shop and free delivery on a Wednesday. Sainsbury offers £25 off the first shop and £10 off plus free delivery for subsequent shops.  Asda charges just £2 per month for delivery. The low delivery charges are especially profit draining given the cost of getting an online order picked, put on to a van which has to be taxed, insured serviced and fuelled, and dropped at the customer’s front door.

Click and collect and the chance of shopping on high tech gadgets do not seem to be catching on in a big way. A look at IGD data examining shopping behaviour shows that as of October 2014 just 26% of online shoppers were using click and collect. Data to April 2014 shows 18% shop on a smartphone and  23% on a tablet computer.

The same data suggests that online is still used infrequently. 21% of online shoppers  use the channel every week, and a further 11% use it every 9 or 10 days.

It is interesting to compare the growth rates of online - heavily promoted, technology friendly, highly service orientated with click and collect or drop at the door – with those of Lidl and Aldi who offer none of that, and yet grew by 15% and 23% respectively in the twelve weeks to beginning of January.

Thriftiness Now a Way of Life for Today's Food Shopper

Anyone who thought that shoppers would give up buying habits acquired during the recession may want to read the Waitrose Food and DrinkReport for 2014. Even those who visit this most upmarket of food retailers keep a close watch on what they spend. As Mark Price, Waitrose CEO says “Britain has become alot thriftier ...and that trend is here to stay”.

Budget consciousness, and its sister waste reduction are now ingrained across all ages and incomes. It means fewer trips to the supermarket, more buying only what is needed for that night’s evening meal, a constant eye on price, and more spending in discount stores like Aldi and Lidl.

Which  is not to say that consumers shun premium products buying only the cheapest, rather that in making a buying decision they want to be sure that they are not over paying, that the price charged is a fair reflection of quality, and that they could not buy similar products somewhere else more cheaply.

So we see that Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference premium range growing sales by 4% in the last 6 months when total sales were down 0.3% , and discounters cottoning on to the interest in premium products, offering expensive wines, lobster, free range Bronze turkeys, and luxury versions of standard favourites like puddings and mince pies. Waitrose’s own growth illustrates shopper willingness to buy the exotic, even if only occasionally, and the company says that 2015 will see further “premiumisation” with more luxury versions of standard foods like “uber special cupcakes”, new fancy doughnuts and ready to drink cocktails.

Amidst all the hype it is worth remembering that the vast majority of food spend goes on the basics - “sustenance and survival” in Waitrose’s words, and it is day to day expenditure that will receive greatest shopper scrutiny. The “Big 4” supermarkets have not fully recognised this, but are slowly seeing that budget consciousness is now a way of life for shoppers, and is here to stay. Asda has stated their commitment to closing the price gap with the discounters, and in a letter which will spoil Christmas for many, Tesco’s new CEO has indicated to his suppliers that as they are benefitting from falling commodity prices they may have to reduce their prices in January, as the company tries to compete against the discounters.

It is difficult to see anything but continued pressure on suppliers and ultimately primary producers, especially where products are heavily commodity reliant and have limited added value.

“A Market in Unprecedented Distress” – Says ASDA About the Grocery Trade

The words come from Andy Clarke, ASDA’s head man, as he reported like for like sales down 1.6% in the 13 weeks to end September, and thereby joined the other three major grocers in a club characterised by sliding sales and plummeting profits.

There is an air of helplessness coming from all four companies with much talk of shoppers changing the way they shop but little sign of game changing action. Yet the changes over which the grocers are wringing their hands have been evident for years. Who in the industry could have missed the rise of Aldi and Lidl, the trend towards convenience shopping and its knock on effect of buying fewer items, and the realisation by shoppers that with a little effort they can trim grocery bills. Arguably too, a return to more normal levels of food inflation was inevitable, and that relying on rising prices to keep sales and profits up was a risky strategy.

Grocers may have secretly thought that a better economy would encourage shoppers to return to pre recession buying behaviour, when little thought was given by many to the size of their grocery bill.

This has not happened. Whilst premium food sellers like Marks and Spencer and Waitrose may be doing better than most, and shoppers are still prepared to buy premium products like Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference which grew by 4% in the last 6 months, the overwhelming evidence is that shoppers are still very careful with their grocery spending.

The Institute of Grocery Distribution has found that the top three priorities of shoppers today are –

To save money on food and groceries (64%)

To reduce food waste (47%)

To stick to a budget (47%)

All the signs are that to remain competitive and hold on to their customers,  supermarkets will need to rebase prices to a significantly lower level than currently.  Asda has recognised this. As the CEO said “We have more to do on the discounters, but we continue to close the gap on price”. Sainsbury by contrast has not, offering only a £150m price reduction. Morrisons know that pricing is key, and suggested that they will reduce by £1billion. Tesco has yet to pronounce.

Tough times for retailers - very tough times for all players in the food chain from producers upwards.

Convenience Stores Flourish as Consumer Behaviour Changes and Competition Increases

Not so long ago the bells were tolling to mark the death of the corner shop. Fine perhaps for papers chocolate and cigarettes, or for a pint of milk in extremis, but for quality and choice the only answer was a trip to the nearest big superstore. And so corner shop turnover dwindled to a level where many businesses could not make enough money to survive.

How times change. Pressures on the family budget and high petrol prices meant that going miles to a store and spending money on things that were not really needed or worse would end up in the bin suddenly seemed less attractive. How much more sensible to nip down to the local shop and buy just the essentials.

The change in behaviour on its own would not have accounted for the rise in convenience shopping. Enter the cut down versions of major supermarkets with a well thought through range offering the quality and freshness found in a larger store, and in a more attractive and hygienic environment (mostly).

Tesco Expresses and Sainsbury Locals sprung up all over the place and critically forced independent small stores to look again at their offer and accept that they had to up their game to survive.

Today, according to the Institute of Grocery Distribution, overall convenience store numbers are up by 1.3%, and whilst major supermarkets are still the driving force behind increased shop numbers, there are far fewer independents closing down. Convenience multiples like Tesco and Sainsbury still only account for 1 in 10 convenience stores, and nearly two thirds are either independents or affiliated to companies like Spar and Londis. (The rest are garage forecourts and Cooperatives).

The independents could do more to boost business. Although accounting for 1 in 10 stores, the big companies take £1 in every £5 spent so they are doing a better job in persuading people to visit them and spend more heavily.

Of course the independent seeking to grow must have the basics in place - cleanliness, freshness and a friendly face. The opportunity to build more business seems to lie in matching products in store to the needs of the type of customer who visits. “Tailored solutions” is the mantra, and  IGD cites as an example the Cooperative in Old Street London which is divided up into “Food for now”, “Food for later” and “Food for Tonight”.

What is heartening about the resurgence of the corner store is that demise is not inevitable, and those who understand their customers and see competition as a stimulus not a threat, stand a good chance of success.

The Increasingly Complex Consumer

It is becoming harder to work out what is going through the consumers mind as they do their food shopping.

On the one hand we could conclude that all roads lead to lower prices.

The growth of  discounters ALDI and Lidl with sales up 30% and 13% respectively versus prior year, has forced the big 4 retailers to re-evaluate their strategies. Morrisons who are the worst hit of all have led the way, declaring that they will drop prices by £1 billion over the next three years to help them compete. Where Morrisons led, others were swift to follow particularly Tesco and ASDA, the former also struggling to grow sales, and the latter keen to preserve their position of always being 10% cheaper. Indeed, like lemmings hurling themselves over the cliff, the race to the bottom has started with all the major retailers dropping the price of milk, bread and eggs.

 

It is not just the Aldi Lidl phenomenon that is leading to change. The last few years have seen the rise of the disciplined shopper who sticks rigorously to a pre-planned list. 48% did so in 2008, the figure is 67% in 2013.(Bord Bia) As a result, the amount that the shopper spends per trip has dropped. Retailers have responded with  heavy, value orientated promotions, but have not found the magic growth formula. Indeed, in the last 12 weeks, grocery growth was 2.2%, just 0.3% ahead of inflation.(Kantar worldpanel)

As to the future, work done by IGD suggests that consumer confidence is increasing, but feeling better is not encouraging people to slacken the purse strings. When asked about their priorities for 2014, 64% said it was about saving money, 47% wanted to reduce food waste to save money, and 47% were determined to stick to a budget.

So maybe the lemming rush to slash prices is indeed the right answer.

And yet.....

We hear that premium food ranges are growing faster than value ranges. Tesco’s Finest range is growing by 12%, and Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference by 9%. (Worldpanel/NFU conference)

Waitrose, not known for being cheap, is showing year on year growth and now has 5% of the total market, its highest ever share.

Sales of organic produce have returned to growth, up 2.8%.(Soil Association). Organic milk is enjoying a mini boom, up 9% in value and 7% in litres. (Dairycodatum).

RSPCA Freedom Food higher welfare products have been bought by 52% of shoppers.

So what are we to conclude?

First, the price issue cannot be ducked. Not only are consumers committed to finding low prices, they have, in their phones, tablets and computes an easy way of checking that they are indeed buying a particular item at the lowest price. However, with all the grocers selling products at the same price, it is becoming less of a reason to choose one store over another.

However, people are prepared to spend on what they value – that hard to define combination of what benefits a product offers and a feeling in the consumers mind that these benefits are worth paying for.

Knowing what the consumer wants and providing it effectively remains at the heart of a successful business strategy.

A Look Inside the Grocery Shopper's Head

According to researchers Kantar Worldpanel the average shopper spends around £3,800 per annum on groceries, and spends the equivalent of 16 working days in store. 

Unsurprisingly, given the time and money involved, shoppers are choosy about where they buy their groceries.

It is clear now that quality and value are non negotiable when it comes to shoppers deciding where to shop.

So if quality and value are a given, what else matters?

Kantar asked shoppers on a recent shopping trip in the Big 4* supermarkets which statement best described their mind set.

42% chose budget management, focussing on getting the items they wanted without spending too much. 25% chose time pressure, aiming to get in and out of the store as quickly as possible. 15% were happy to browse. Just 9% felt that searching for special offers was the best description of them on the trip in question.

However, Kantar have found that shoppers’ mind sets differ depending on the type of product being bought.

“Fast Find” covers pre planned purchases like bread and milk, and here the shopper’s main aim is to buy what they want without spending too much, and get in and out of the store in double quick time. They spend little time looking for special offers. Which does raise the question of why retailers feel the need to sell milk at silly prices as was the case a couple of years ago.

“Restock and save” items are less frequently bought products like tea, coffee or washing powder. Such products do not perish so this is the category where 39% of shoppers look hard for special offers. Again, a finding such as this makes one wonder why manufacturers run promotional deals such as BOGOFS – the sensible consumer does not buy any more over the long term, instead preferring to stock up until the next time the product in question is on promotion.

“Classic restock” covers items such as fruit juice and cereals, and health and diet considerations are second only to budget management.

In the “Meal solver” the shopper’s prime focus, outweighing even budgetary considerations, is to find convenient meal solutions. This suggests that the more help that  retailers can give about easy to prepare meal ideas the more likely a shopper is to return.

The final category is treat where shoppers buy on impulse and all other considerations come second.

Kantar’s key message from the research is that price and quality are a “must”, and now it is the shopping experience both within category and overall that matters to consumers. They say that whilst their research focuses on the Big 4, the findings are relevant to smaller shops.

*Big 4 supermarkets are ASDA, Morrisons, Tesco and Sainsbury

Rapid Changes in Meat Eating - All Down to Price and Horsegate.

 From BPEX and EBLEX comes interesting data about the nation’s meat eating trends. BPEX’s quarterly category report shows that fresh meat consumption in the year to mid October 2013 is down in tonnage by 2%, although up in value by 5%.

It is the differences in species consumption which are most fascinating, and they show that consumers are quick to change their buying patterns according to price.

For the first time for years the amount of fresh chicken eaten has gone down. The 3.5% drop is significant when considering that in the previous year consumption grew by 7%. The change is driven by prices which on average went up by almost 10%.

On the other side of the coin an average reduction in prices of 4% has seen lamb consumption grow by a whopping 12.5%. Again, this is a huge change in buying habits for the lamb market had been dropping year on year since 2008. BPEX tells us that pork, where volume sales have dropped by 4%, has been the biggest loser with leg and shoulder joint sales falling as consumers switch to lamb for their Sunday roast.

Over the same period beef consumption dropped by 1% as prices rose by an average of 6%.

 Horsegate fits into the picture because, EBLEX tells us, consumer concerns about exactly what it was they were eating drove retailers to buy more British produced meat. As a result supplies of beef, chicken and pork were tight and prices rose.

There are signs though that the pendulum may be swinging again. Stories are appearing about sizeable increases in imports of Polish and Irish beef, which if sold at a low enough price may trump shopper worries about how the meat was produced.

BPEX also publishes details of which supermarkets over or under trade in fresh meat relative to their market share for all groceries.

Tesco, ASDA, and the Coop under trade. Sainsbury, Waitrose, discounters ALDI and LIDL and beleaguered Morrison’s overtrade. Price alone is therefore not a guide to how well a supermarket might do on fresh meat sales. The overtraders are a mixture of the upmarket and pricey (Waitrose and Sainsbury) and the “noted for low prices” discounters and Morrisons. Conversely Asda and Tesco might be said to be operating at the lower end of the price spectrum yet under trade.

Doing well in meat demands a tricky balance of good value, good quality, provenance and trust. Get it wrong and shoppers will vote with their feet and take their meat buying elsewhere. The challenge is made more difficult by shoppers' increasing tendency to change their buying behaviour with lightning speed. 

Fever-Tree Mixers - A Masterclass in How to Add Value

Fever Tree mixers are basically a combination of water sugar and flavourings – just like Schweppes or any mixer sold under a retailer’s own brand.
Yet newcomer Fever - Tree retails at over three times the price of old established Schweppes, and as much as seven  times the price of retailer brands.

“Hmm, must be a tiny brand” will be most peoples’ reaction. Not true. Whilst Fever Tree is undoubtedly a niche product , it is a sizeable niche . Turnover in 2012 was £16.4 million, up from £12 million the year before, and this year turnover is predicted to top £25 million.

It is a profitable niche, reporting underlying earnings in 2012 of £5 million before tax, depreciation and amortisation. And it has international appeal with 70% of its sales coming from abroad, mainly Spain and the US.

Charles Rolls and Tim Warrillow who founded the brand attribute its success to outstanding product quality. Fever Tree products contain only fresh ingredients and natural flavourings which are claimed to be unique. Its products are made from cane sugar, and none contain artificial sweeteners like aspartame or saccharin.

The mixers do indeed taste good. But I would suggest that the packaging plays a big part in the brand’s appeal. The bottles are glass, not plastic. The simply designed, shiny labels look classy, as does the outer sleeve. Displayed on supermarket shelves they make everything else look cheap.

And then there is the story behind the brand. It seems that the co founders travelled to the four corners of the earth to source their ingredients. So the quinine comes from a plantation in the Congo that produces the purest form of quinine in the world. Lemon and thyme for the tonic come from Provence, and the three gingers used come from Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Cochin in India.

There may be psychology at play. After all, if you have shelled out over £26 for a bottle of fancy gin or £36 for vodka (the going rate for Tanqueray and Grey Goose) then you probably want to buy what you believe to be the best mixer available. As the Fever-Tree website says “If ¾ of your gin and tonic is tonic, make sure you use the best”.

It is difficult to break down what adds value. Usually it is a combination of factors, both rational, like product taste and ingredients, and emotional, like how much the story behind the brand appeals, and how buying the brand makes you feel about yourself.

Fever - Tree manages to combine a myriad of factors and turn them into a considerable success.

Small Stores Rise Again

What goes around comes around.

How true that is for small stores. Having reached endangered species status the wheels have turned and now buying food in small local stores, usually styled “convenience” or C-store shopping, is forecast to be one of the fastest growing sectors of the market. IGD (Institute of Grocery Distribution) says that the convenience sector will grow by over £10bn to reach £46.2bn by 2018.

Consumers are buying more food locally to cut down on fuel costs, to help budgeting because they are less tempted to spend on stuff they either don’t need or which is likely to have passed its sell by date before they get round to eating the product, and to save time. According to IGD 85% of consumers visited a convenience store in the last month, and in August 2013, 9% of people did their main shop at a convenience store.

All the big retailers have jumped on the bandwagon. Even Aldi who have hitherto resolutely stated that they will focus only on on their traditional supermarkets, are trialling a convenience store in West London.

It is not just the big supermarkets who are developing strategies for convenience stores. Costcutter offers 3 different models of small store shopping – good, better and best – and shop owners can choose the model which best suits their local customers.

The keys to successful convenience store management start as ever with the needs of the shopper. In the past these needs may have been limited to topping up on staples like bread, milk and eggs, and buying a daily paper, bar of chocolate or cigarettes. The game is changing now, and whilst many will still visit the store for these items, shoppers say that they would like more fresh food counters, fresh food available at the front of the store, and fresh food grouped together.

Fresh and local is a powerful selling message. Smaller stores whose customers like the idea of supporting their local farmer or grower can grasp an edge over the bigger players by stocking local goods and displaying them with a strong message about the individuals who produce the food.

The knowledge that small store operators can develop about their customers, many of whom are regulars, means that they can tailor their offer specifically for them. An example quoted by IGD is that a store sited near to a railway station could offer food for commuters to eat on their journey to work, and ensure that they have ingredients available so that those same travellers on the way home can buy all that is necessary to prepare an evening meal.

There will be many other entrepreneurial ideas that smaller retailers can embrace and profit from. The very good news is that shoppers are looking for first class convenience stores and will support those who cater for what they want.

The Sainsbury Take on What makes Consumers Tick

Sainsbury’s half year results were announced this week and showed good growth in sales and profits. The company has now increased its sales for 35 quarters in a row, something that none of the other “big four” players have done and so when CEO Justin King speaks about what consumers want it is worth a listen.

 When presenting the results King said that the better economic mood in the country has yet to be felt by consumers in their pockets and so Sainsbury’s business plan assumes that household incomes will remain flat to declining over the next two to three years.

Equally striking is his overwhelming belief that, despite the economic pressure, British consumers are driven as much by ethical values as by price. He sincerely believes that Sainsbury’s success can be put down to fairness in dealing with suppliers, high standards of food quality and traceability, (interestingly Sainsbury was not tainted by the horsemeat scandal), and attention to animal welfare, (where they have for years supported RSPCA Freedom Foods, Fair Trade bananas, free range eggs, and Marine stewardship Council fish).

King is convinced that British consumers stand right behind him on this. Which explains why, despite being knocked back twice in the challenge on Tesco’s price promise, Sainsbury are again going to the courts to claim that when comparing prices, issues such as animal welfare and Fair Trade have to be taken into the equation. 84% of consumers apparently agree with him.

According to King this commitment to values applies to supplier relationships. Speaking on the day when Prince Charles took a swipe at rapacious retailers who deal unfairly with farmers, King stated categorically that Sainsbury’s supplier relationships are totally fair.

The commitment to ethical values is an overarching strategy, and it is accompanied by a commitment to financial value in the shape of Brand Match, the scheme whereby consumers get a coupon if their branded purchase would have cost less in one of the other big four retailers. Beyond this, the Sainsbury route to winning consumer spend lies in investment in convenience stores, online shopping, and Sainsbury’s own brand where of course they can display their values credentials to best effect. In the last 6 months sales through convenience stores have grown by 20%, online by 15% and sales of mid range By Sainsbury and Taste the Difference food brands are growing at twice the rate of national brands. They will continue to invest in their Nectar card which they believe allows tailor made promotional activity directed at individual shoppers and is thus more relevant than competitors who use loyalty cards to promote to groups of people.

Cynics might say that there is no such thing as a major retailer who is fair to suppliers. Cynics might also say that it is price alone that matters to consumers and Sainsbury just happen to be on a winning streak because Tesco, Morrisons and ASDA are going through a difficult time.

But, 34 consecutive quarters of growth mean that Sainsbury must be doing something right – something that resonates with consumers sufficiently strongly to make them shop there on as regular basis.

Consumer Opinion and its Influence on Monsanto and Arla Decisions

Last week Monsanto announced that it is stopping efforts to persuade the EU to allow Genetically Modified crops to be grown in Europe. And Arla announced that it is introducing its own farm assurance scheme because, they say, the Red Tractor no longer satisfies the needs of retailers or consumers. Both stories illustrate the importance of understanding consumers, and the impact they have on the business climate in which farming operates.

In the case of GM crops, those who supported their introduction failed to realise that there was no compelling reason for consumers to embrace the technology. GM was not going to make food cheaper, or more nutritious, health giving or delicious. This lack of a clear benefit means that whilst 13% of the population are strongly opposed to GM, and 3% strongly in favour, over 50% do not have a view either way, a figure that has remained the same for the last 10 years. (Source: IGD research). And such is the lack of interest or concern that, according to Food Standards Agency research undertaken last year, 76% of the population have never sought information on the topic, and 63% have never talked about it with anybody.

Add to this inertia the vocal lobbying done by anti GM campaigners, and the lurid stories put out by the tabloid press (example - the Daily Mail’s headline following Monsanto’s announcement was “Frankenstein food firm quits Europe”) then it is unsurprising that Monsanto felt it sensible to put their efforts elsewhere.

In the case of the Red Tractor, those in charge have failed to recognise that a growing number of consumers these days want more than bare minimum standards, particularly when it comes to animal health and welfare.

Whilst just 16% of people put animal welfare as a key driver of their food buying behaviour compared with 74% for price and value and 76% freshness and quality, almost 80% state that animal welfare matters to them. These numbers are sufficiently sizeable for retailers to take note and act. (Source: Labelling Matters Project by RSPCA, Soil Association, WorldSociety for the Protection of Animals, Compassion in World Farming).

The Red Tractor people are now starting to rethink their approach, and now seem prepared to move forward. Commenting on the Arla announcement the Red Tractor response was to say that they would work with Arla to ensure that the scheme meets the needs of buyers, consumers and farmers.

Farming faces a number of major issues as it strives to balance food production and environmental management, whilst remaining competitive in a global fight. Consumers will have a view on all of them, from TB management to large scale pig and dairy farms, crops for biofuels to animal cloning.

Farming leaders need to ensure that consumer opinion forms the backcloth to deciding the issues upon which the industry feels it must stand its ground.

Understanding the Consumer - How Pork Producer Cranswick is Responding to Food Trends

Cranswick, mostly known for its pork products, was once a farmer owned cooperative and is now a public limited company with a turnover of £875m. It has just announced full year pre tax profits up 8%, and sales up 5% (on a like for like basis).

Any company which operates with a heavy dependence on commodities is liable to have a roller coaster ride, and none more so than in the pig sector where prices fluctuate wildly and cheaper imports from countries like Denmark pose a constant threat. Indeed at least 65% of pork products eaten in the UK come from imported pig meat compared with around 36% for lamb and 33% for beef. (Source: EBLEX, BPEX)

Additional risk for a company like Cranswick comes from the structure of the UK grocery trade. Like many food suppliers it is reliant on a few major customers, and a change in trading relationships can mean a significant drop in sales and profits.

Cranswick has coped with this volatility through investment to help keep costs down, but also through innovation.  The company is committed to operating in the quality end of the market, and has been able to develop premium foods which command premium prices. It was one of the pioneers of the gourmet sausages sector and it claims to be the first company to sell air dried hams from UK bred pigs.

The acquisition in April of East Anglian Pigs illustrates the company’s consumer awareness. Cranswick now has end to end control of it’s supply chain – a move that is becoming more relevant to consumers who are seeking British produce in the wake of the horsemeat scandal, and to retailers who are quick to respond to consumer demands. East Anglian Pigs operates to RSPCA higher welfare standards, and has a major outdoor reared pork enterprise – both fast growing sectors in tune with consumer trends.

The drive to be consumer focussed is admirable, but as the business expands into areas outside of traditional expertise, and particularly in light of the EAP acquisition, Cranswick will need to be vigilant in ensuring that it does indeed have full control of all that goes on in its supply chain, whether this be product safety, quality of taste and ingredients, and animal welfare standards.

Advertising Provides Clues to Consumer Trends

What companies say in their advertisements can be a good guide to what matters to consumers.

The holy grail of a good advert is to be eye-catching, relevant, and persuasive. It has to stand out amidst the hundreds of advertising messages with which we are bombarded every day, it needs to address an issue that matters to consumers, and it has to affect behaviour, either by reinforcing the rightness of a decision made,  or encouraging a change in what or where a product is bought.

It is therefore interesting and instructive to see what the big advertisers are saying. That is not to suggest that they always get it right – frequently they do not, but, most advertisements are the result of thousands of hours spent listening to consumers and crafting messages which will appeal.

Many supermarkets have jumped on the British bandwagon in the wake of the horsemeat scandal. The IGD (Institute of Grocery Distribution)  tells us that trust in food manufacturers and retailers was dented by the issue, and their most recent research shows increased consumer interest in buying British with the proportion of people saying that “it is not important to me to buy British” dropping from 45% in 2007 to 22% in 2013.

Morrisons, as indicated by the advert above, have clearly decided, in the wake of the scandal that their unique position of buying direct from the farm and owning their meat processors, and their commitment to buying British beef, lamb and pork gives them a one up on competitors. They are undoubtedly right. So their message is relevant. Where it starts to fall down is that the way they say it is complicated. Consumers might ask themselves what exactly is meant by. Morrisons headline is “All the fresh meat we prepare in store is 100% British, 100% of the time”, but consumers might ask themselves questions like how much and what meat exactly  is not prepared in store, and they will be none the wiser if they take the time to read all of the words in the advert.

Morrisons also advertise the quality of their fresh food, as indeed they have done for some years.

The Coop takes a simpler approach to buying British with the headline – “All of our fresh beef is reared on British farms”.

And the Coop combines buying British with animal welfare in an advert saying that “All our fresh chicken is reared by British farmers to higher welfare standards”. Again, though, consumers might ask themselves what exactly is meant by higher welfare.

Which is not to say that price is unimportant. ASDA take the no holds barred approach – “We are 10% cheaper or your money back.”

Sainsbury by contrast go for the softer sell. Their message combines quality with a price, hence the beautifully photographed pictures with a teeny tiny reference to the price, so small it could easily be missed. It is difficult to criticise Sainsbury, their track record of growing sales and profits is sound. But perhaps here they are overly subtle.

What can we conclude?

Price will remain important to consumers but so, increasingly, will quality and provenance.