Trendspotting 2008

As economic gloom rises, access to cheap credit evaporates, nervousness sets in about spending the money we've got, and rising food costs have registered even on the affluent, it is timely to ask whether a hunt for lowest possible food prices is set to obliterate any other considerations in consumers' minds. Applying some tried and tested lessons about consumer behaviour when the going gets tougher may help answer the question. So, somewhat bravely, here are predictions about food market trends in 2008.

Value not price

At times of economic pressure people search harder for value, which is different from just looking at sticker price. Value is a combination of price, quality, and feeling good about a purchase. Its perhaps best summed up as answering yes to the question "is this worth it?". Top quality, fairly priced products will continue to sell well. Anything seen as pricey for what it is will not, and supermarket top tier product staples such as meat, fruit, veg and dairy may struggle unless they are clearly better than alternatives.

Environmental concern

This is here to stay largely due to the high level of publicity it receives. Products and services seen to be beneficial to the environment will continue to see sales growth.

Provenance/Ethical purchasing/Health

These trends have been combined as they are closely related in consumers' minds. Provenance may be described as "can I trust the source of this food and how it got here". The link with health comes because consumers are worried for health reasons about what goes into their food and how it is processed. They worry for ethical reasons about where it has come from and how far, how the animals have been treated, and have the producers been fairly rewarded. All these concerns have combined to power sales of local food, organics, fair trade, and special animal welfare schemes, even though the sticker price is usually higher than for other options. The forecast for all these sectors is continued growth, albeit at a lower rate than historically. Those who are truly committed will not change buying habits, but occasional purchasers if pushed for cash may buy less often.

Channels of purchase

The places people buy from and the way they buy are also likely to change. People drawing in their purchasing horns may choose to eat out less, or trade down in the amount they are spending on a night out. So sales through catering channels will slow or even decline. One channel which could grow is internet grocery shopping which saves petrol costs, and food miles, and is more convenient.

So in the end....

Though conditions may be tough, and overall growth may slow, there is unlikely to be a major reverse in the encouraging trend towards consumers caring more about their food, and being prepared to pay that bit extra for top quality, fairly priced products that help them live lives that they can feel good about.