The Food Consumer 2009

Tis the season for predictions, and whilst the cynical might feel that forecasting in today's volatile climate has as much chance of accuracy as Mystic Meg, a trawl of what the pundits are saying is showing alot of concensus about where consumers are headed.


Here are the key themes.

1. Paying down debt.

Spurred on by fears of losing their job, and the dawning realisation that even if employed they are living well beyond their means, consumers are determined to reduce their debt, by spending the minimum possible. They are thinking hard about what they really need, and what product benefits they think are worth paying for.

As strategy consultants Marakon put it, this means a big gap between the features of many products and what consumers truly value. In other words, anything over priced for what it is, or where a perfectly good cheaper alternative exists, will see plummeting sales. Organic products, many premium foods and drinks, and pretentious restaurants selling substandard food at inflated prices will come under an increasingly harsh spotlight.



2. Searching for security and emotional comfort

The gloom and doom is bringing with it a yearning for security, comfort and simplicity. Future predictor Richard Watson reckons that this trend will result in more commitment to buying British and local as opposed to foreign and global. Jasper Gerard the Times restaurant critic, and Mintel the research company along with many others feel that consumers will seek even more reassurance about where their food has come from, how it has been produced and what is in it, hence another reason for buying local. Animal health and welfare will also be prominent, especially pig welfare following the Jamie Oliver programme about pig production, scheduled for end January.

Linked to this trend come predictions from many, including innovation business the food people, of a return to home cooked simple food such as as stews casseroles and roly poly pudding, home baking, an increase in foraging, (the National Trust is running foraging weekends!), and an increase in gardening especially vegetable growing.

3. Worrying about the here and now as opposed to what happens down the road.

Some forecasters are predicting a turning away from environmental issues and products, unless they don't involve effort or extra cost, and are not a marketing ploy.

4. Trading down but some trading up too

These are Mintel's words and capture the urge consumers have, even in the most austere times, to break out and treat themselves. Certainly the continued growth in champagne and smoked salmon sales, and the news that Waitrose had a recovery in sales just before Christmas says that consumers will splurge occasionally.


5. Trend summary


Going Up:

Prudence

Staying in

Comfort food

Home cooking from scratch

Home baking

"Find your own food" from foraging to vegetable growing

Local, particularly if close in price to the alternative

Buying British

Cheaper cuts of meat, including a return to offal

Own label

Higher welfare options

Old fashioned, trusted brands



Going Down

Conspicuous consumption

Anything overpriced

Premium food unless very special, including organics

Eating out, except fast food

Bad service

Going to the pub


In truth, most of these trends have been emerging over the last few months, with the continuing flow of bad news merely accelerating them, and confirming that the choosy consumer is here to stay for a good while.