There is a lot of change just now in consumer food buying behaviour, and being able to distinguish between which of these changes are fads and which are trends saves time, money and heartache.
Well documented changes include more buying of local and British, a drop in organic sales, more interest in welfare friendly products and Fair Trade, a shift back to upmarket Waitrose and away from discounters, a boom in buying premium foods over Xmas but increased amounts of products sold on promotion, a massive rise over Xmas in online food buying, and frantic attempts by retailers to stop what Laurie McIlwee of Tesco called “promiscuous” customers shopping around for the best deals. Other reported changes are more people growing their own vegetables, more scratch cooking and less ready meal purchase, and an upsurge in sales of unfashionable cuts such as pigs trotters and skirt of beef.
What in all that might be a fad to be avoided or a trend to be embraced?
The text books tell us that a trend is something that reflects broader society and what it values. Often a trend will cut across various industries, usually emerges slowly and builds over time, and is a development of an already existing trend . A fad appears from nowhere, is taken up with exaggerated enthusiasm for a short time, and is often fed by media hype. It is not fuelled by consumers needs.
So, which are fads and which trends in all the changes mentioned earlier?
Predictable fads are oddballs like pigs trotters. The rush to grow your own is also likely to be a fad, dying down as all but the most dedicated realise how backbreaking and expensive home vegetable growing can be.
More controversially I’d say that the big rise in organic sales between 2005 and 2007 was a fad, as was the flocking in 2008 to discount supermarkets. Purchasing organic for a short while became the fashionable thing to do, fuelled by the media who liberally advised organic purchase without saying why. Equally, the discount rush quickly subsided as many who felt they had to go and see what all the fuss was about decided that they could get more choice at the value they wanted in conventional supermarkets. This is not to dismiss the loyal core of consumers who won’t buy anything but organic, or who find exactly what they need at Aldi or Lidl. Rather it is to stress that explosive growth is rarely sustainable,unless it results from a solid reason to buy.
The jury is out on whether Fair Trade is a trend. On the one hand the British support fair play, but on the other I’m not sure whether there would be a huge outcry of protest if it disappeared from the shelves.
On line food shopping is definitely a trend. It started in other industries and fulfils a consumer need for convenience. Buying British and local are trends as is the increased interest in welfare friendly products. Both tap into a deep rooted albeit often latent- until- prodded British wish to fly the flag, support community, and care about animal welfare. The move towards premium food is also a trend. People are interested in high quality ingredients and good tasting food. The only reason for a hiccup in premium buying was that a lot of products labelled premium did not justify the price asked.
One definite trend is the cutthroat competition among supermarkets. This will only accelerate as they try to lap what have been high growth years. Despite all having good sales over Christmas the price cutting promotions have already begun with Tesco and ASDA leading the way. Where they go, others will follow.
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